Every year on 24 May, Iranians mark the liberation of Khorramshahr from Iraq in 1982 - a historic victory. This year, some hoped a peace deal with the US might be a similarly transformative moment. Instead, last-minute disagreements meant a final Pakistani memorandum likely won't be signed as hoped on Sunday, but one thing is clear: the US has conceded it cannot achieve through war what it set out to do when it launched Operation Epic Fury on 28 February - namely, force Iran to bend on its nuclear programme.
Instead, the US has apparently agreed to unfreeze billions of Iranian assets upfront, handing them to a regime even more hardline than the one that started the conflict. In return, Iran will gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial traffic to prewar levels, releasing the chokehold on the global economy. So Iran gets its money back for simply restoring the prewar status quo. The exact amount and timing of the asset dispersal will depend on concessions over Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium - an issue that triggered one of the last-minute hitches, since Iran insists nuclear talks cannot begin with pre-committed terms.
Donald Trump insists he does not make bad deals, and says this one isn't. But Democrats and Republican hawks have spent 48 hours begging to differ. Ben Rhodes, Obama's foreign policy adviser, summed it up: "Nothing was accomplished by Operation Epic Fury except putting the IRGC in charge of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz." Ali Vaez of the Crisis Group noted that DC's Iran hawks "got two wars, nearly every conceivable sanction designation, a blockade, threw a wrench in the global economy and will still claim that just a little more pressure and a touch more bombing will magically yield the concessions they still won't be satisfied with." Trita Parsi of the Quincy thinktank argued Trump has merely negotiated back to the position that held when the original ceasefire was announced - before Trump upended it on 13 April by imposing a US blockade of Iran's ports, prompting Iran's own de facto blockade.
In short, Trump has spent billions of dollars and progressed no further on nuclear issues than he was at the last Geneva talks on 26 February, before the war started. Little wonder Republican hawks like Ted Cruz are calling it a disaster.
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, rejected US media claims that Iran agreed to send enriched uranium abroad or accept a 10-year cap on enrichment. He said Iran would only discuss these issues within a 60-day time frame - hardly an advance from Geneva. That doesn't rule out eventual concessions, as Trump assured a nervous Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday, but such goals must now be achieved through diplomacy, not military force. Similarly, Israel's agenda on Iran's missiles, drones and proxies has been deferred.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian insisted the talks will show Iran is willing to prove it isn't seeking a nuclear weapon. The process is laborious and technical but achievable - especially if Iran doesn't feel it's negotiating under military duress. The abandonment of the military route, at least for now, is a blow to Netanyahu in an election year, especially as US support for Israel has eroded among every demographic except older Republican voters.
Israel is resisting parts of the memorandum, particularly the Lebanon ceasefire framework, pushing for language allowing military operations in Lebanon under the justification of responding to "any threat." Iran rejects that and insists on a sustainable, lasting ceasefire. Nor is every aspect of the Strait of Hormuz's future governance settled. Iran and Oman are discussing a Persian Gulf strait authority, but Oman is unlikely to back tolls, and Iran may find its newfound weapon is a diminishing asset.