Vladimir Putin is set to touch down in Beijing on Tuesday for a state visit, arriving just four days after Donald Trump departed - proving that China's guest list is now more exclusive than a G7 summit, and far more welcoming.
This marks Putin's 25th visit to China, according to Chinese state media, which is either a testament to diplomatic stamina or a sign that the Kremlin really needs to explore other vacation spots. The visit underscores the deep bond between Putin and Xi Jinping, who have met over 40 times - a tally that leaves Xi's encounters with Western leaders looking like casual acquaintances.
"Hosting two of the most powerful leaders in the world in a matter of days shows China's growing confidence in its place and standing in the world," said William Yang, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. He added that Xi likely wants to remind Trump that Beijing has other solid relationships to lean on, just in case Washington gets any ideas about isolation.
Putin arrives as he faces perhaps the toughest stretch of his long rule. His strongman image is starting to fray at home, with Russia making little progress on the battlefield in Ukraine this year. Meanwhile, Russia's economic troubles are increasing its dependence on China, turning what the Kremlin calls a partnership of equals into something more lopsided - like a seesaw with a sumo wrestler on one end.
On the eve of his visit, Putin published a video address to China, declaring that China-Russia relations had reached "an unprecedented level." He pointed to soaring bilateral trade, settlements conducted nearly entirely in roubles and yuan (goodbye, US dollar), and mutual visa-free policies for travelers. China's foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun chimed in, saying the friendship will be "further deepened and more deeply rooted in people's hearts" under Xi and Putin's strategic guidance.
This year marks 30 years since Beijing and Moscow signed a strategic partnership agreement, and 25 years since they inked the "treaty of good-neighbourliness and friendly cooperation." They've been busy building resilience against Western sanctions, which rely on the US dollar's dominance. China doesn't comply with Western sanctions on Russia and has bought over $367 billion of Russian fossil fuels since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Analysts are watching for potential deals on energy cooperation, notably the Power of Siberia 2, a 1,600-mile natural gas pipeline that would add 50 billion cubic metres of gas capacity to Russia's flows to China. The pipeline would run through Mongolia and is seen by the Kremlin as key to replacing lost European export markets. For China, it could reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, disrupted by US-Iran tensions, but might also create overdependence on Russia - a classic energy dilemma.
Putin has been a background figure in Xi's delicate dance with the US. Last week, Xi gave Trump a rare tour of his private residence in Beijing, mentioning that Putin was among the few foreign leaders invited to the Zhongnanhai compound. "Good," replied Trump, presumably not realizing he was being played.
China has also faced Western sanctions over the Ukraine war. This month, the Chinese embassy in the UK lodged "stern representations" after London added two Chinese entities to its Russian sanctions list. Western countries have criticized Beijing's ongoing support for Russia through economic ties and exports of dual-use equipment.
The Financial Times reported that, according to US assessments, Xi told Trump that Putin might end up regretting the war - a claim China's foreign ministry has rejected. If true, it reflects China's growing awareness of Russia's difficulties, both on the battlefield and at home. The war has largely stalemated, while Ukrainian long-range strikes have damaged Russian energy infrastructure.
On Tuesday, a Russian deputy from Siberia called for the "swift conclusion" of the war, warning that Russia's economy would "not withstand a prolonged continuation of the special military operation" - a rare public admission that the conflict is straining the country. Perhaps Putin's 25th visit to China will include some economic therapy.