Nigel Farage didn't show up to savor his victory in the by-election he triggered himself. Overnight, he told a rally of Reform UK supporters he had been advised there was an "organised campaign to disrupt and degrade the result" and wanted to avoid being "demeaned and humiliated by nobodies."
When the official result came in hours later, it confirmed the Reform UK leader had indeed won this by-election convincingly with 22,239 votes - but without any serious opposition, as the other main parties didn't field candidates. Farage's allies say he's been both emboldened and re-energized by the race, and it's not hard to see why.
He's clearly popular in the constituency, his party has led national opinion polls for much of the past 18 months, and he's turned his upstart organization into a mass-membership movement with a real shot at government. But today's result won't stop the Metropolitan Police investigation into donations to Reform UK, questions about his friendship with a convicted fraudster, or the parliamentary investigation into why he didn't register a £5m gift from a billionaire donor.
Given Farage triggered this race and the result was entirely predictable, what was the point? When he announced his surprise resignation last month to run for a seat he already held, he said "the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions" and he wanted to "fight to continue the political revolution that Reform has started." Could he have predicted that continuing his "revolution" would descend into a bizarre electoral battle involving a record 34 candidates, a 90cm-long ballot paper, and his most prominent challenger being a man dressed as a bin?
Labour says Farage has been trying to "dodge scrutiny," and the Conservatives argue he triggered the race because he was having a "hissy fit." One thing he could have anticipated is the cost: in a constituency with the most deprived neighborhood in England, the council estimates taxpayers will fork out £250,000 for the by-election. Reform UK has offered to foot the bill, but that's not allowed under electoral law.
Now the election is over, Farage is likely to face renewed scrutiny on those outstanding financial questions. The most high-profile row involves the revelation that shortly before the 2024 general election, he secretly received £5m from Thailand-based crypto-billionaire and Reform donor Christopher Harborne. The money, which Farage described as an "unconditional gift," was first revealed by the Guardian this year. Farage has offered various explanations for why Harborne gave him the money, including as a reward for Brexit and to pay for personal security for the rest of his life. Parliament's standards commissioner is investigating because it wasn't registered; Farage says he didn't need to, has done "nothing wrong," and the investigation is "being used as a political tool."
Meanwhile, the Met Police has been investigating large donations to Reform UK for over a year. They've confirmed two people have been interviewed but made no arrests. The investigation reportedly relates to allegations of concealing or disguising donations from an "impermissible" donor, or using "false" information about a donation. Reform UK sources say no party officials have been interviewed. Both investigations could take months to conclude.
Farage has also received financial support for security and social media staff from convicted fraudster George Cottrell, known as "Posh George." The 32-year-old, arrested at a US airport while travelling with Farage, admitted wire fraud in the US in 2017. The Sunday Times revealed Cottrell's support, including use of a luxury flat near Buckingham Palace. Parliament's standards watchdog hasn't confirmed an investigation, but Farage says there was "no wrongdoing," he followed the rules, and he's considering legal action.
If Farage is found to have breached parliament's rules, sanctions could lead to a second by-election - and the party is confident they'd win again. Beyond a personal boost, the campaign allowed Reform UK to build a wealth of local voter data, invaluable if the parliamentary investigation prompts a second by-election the main parties actually contest.
The bigger problem for Reform UK is that nationally, Farage's popularity is slipping. "This time last year Farage had the highest approval of the main party leaders," says pollster Luke Tryl of More in Common. "Yet earlier this month he fell to his worst score since the general election." Tryl notes his negative approvals have risen, which may signal greater willingness to vote tactically against him, and fewer people express positive views, suggesting erosion in his base.
More in Common's research suggests around 80% of voters are aware of questions about Farage's finances, but opinions are mixed. "Farage's strongest supporters often take the view it's an 'establishment stitch up,'" says Tryl. "And for his opponents, it is a further reason to dislike him."
Farage has professionalised Reform UK, secured significant funding, and recruited high-profile figures like Robert Jenrick and Zia Yusuf to prove this third party isn't a one-man-band. He may be bullish after this risky, self-imposed by-election battle, but his rivals frame it as a waste of money and a personal embarrassment. Ultimately, it's voters nationally - not in this corner of Essex - who will decide if this by-election marks a downward shift in Farage's brand or a springboard toward Downing Street.