NPR’s A Martinez sat down with Alan Wolff, a trade policy veteran who helped draft the very law Trump is now using to slap tariffs on pretty much everyone. Wolff, now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, broke down the situation with the grim clarity of someone who’s seen this movie before.

The tariffs fall under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which gives the president broad authority to retaliate against foreign practices deemed “unreasonable.” Trump has divided the world into two baskets: some countries get a 10% tariff (mostly those with U.S. agreements), while the rest get 12.5% - on top of existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other grievances. So it’s basically tariffs all the way down.

When asked whether consumers will feel the pinch, Wolff didn’t mince words: “Yes. There’s no way of avoiding that.” He explained that while foreign exporters might offer some discounts, most of the tariff gets passed on to importers, then to retailers, and finally to the American consumer, who ends up paying most of the bill. Surprise: tariffs are a tax on imports, and someone has to pay it.

As for legal challenges, Wolff noted that the Supreme Court previously struck down Trump’s emergency tariff justification. This time, the administration used a different authority, but Wolff expects the Court to say, “You did it again - you used authority that belongs to Congress.” The blanket nature of the tariffs - covering 60 countries and all U.S. trade - may go too far even for a friendly bench.

Wolff acknowledged that tariffs can be useful in specific cases: to change other countries’ behavior, protect struggling industries, or enforce trade agreements. But a blanket tariff? That’s beyond anything Congress ever contemplated. And the Constitution’s Commerce Clause gives Congress the power over tariffs, not the president acting alone.

In short: consumers will pay more, the courts may step in, and the only thing certain is that nothing about trade policy is ever simple.