At 9:01 PM Tuesday, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton - a hardliner with the president's blessing - clinched the Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate against incumbent John Cornyn. By 9:02 PM, Donald Trump was already celebrating on social media, promising to do “nice, big, beautiful rallies” for Paxton. "Texas, this will be FUN!" he wrote, presumably in all caps.

Democrat James Talarico, Paxton's general election opponent, wasted no time either. At 9:03 PM, he reached out to Cornyn's supporters with an open invitation: “You have a place in our campaign.” Because nothing says bipartisanship like poaching the opposition's leftovers.

Paxton's victory - the widest primary defeat of an incumbent U.S. senator in nearly 50 years - underscores Trump's enduring grip on the GOP base. But Democrats are betting Paxton's extremism and scandal-ridden past will drive disenchanted Cornyn voters into their arms. The Cook Political Report has already shifted the seat from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican,” which is political-speak for "we're not sure but we're hedging."

Democratic hopes got a fundraising boost, too. Talarico's campaign, which raised a record $27 million in Q1 2026, pulled in another $600,000 in the two hours after Paxton's win was confirmed. That's a lot of small-dollar donations from people who really, really don't want Ken Paxton in the Senate.

Beto O'Rourke, the former congressman who nearly unseated Ted Cruz in 2018, told the New York Times that Paxton is “too extreme and he's too tied to Trump” to win over independents. Some establishment Republicans agree, fearing that Trump's backing of extreme candidates could cost the party control of Congress. “Oh boy,” said Senator John Hoeven (R-ND), who supported Cornyn. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) said she was “supremely disappointed.” Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) was more diplomatic: “He made his decision. That doesn't change the way that I feel.”

But the numbers tell a story. Nearly 1.4 million Texans voted in Tuesday's runoff, about 800,000 fewer than in March. Paxton won about 886,000 votes this week, a few thousand more than in the primary. Cornyn, who got about 910,000 in the spring, attracted just shy of 502,000 this time. The question for both campaigns now: who stayed home, and can you get them to show up in November?