Guardian writers' crystal ball says: 14th (which, to be fair, is an average of many guesses, so basically a coin toss with extra steps).
Sunderland, fresh off a seventh-place finish that left statisticians scratching their heads, are about to taste continental football for the first time since 1973-74, when they had a brief fling with the Cup Winners' Cup. The big question: will Régis Le Bris's upward trajectory continue, or will the dreaded second-season syndrome strike? Spoiler: nobody knows, but we're all here for the ride.
Critics love to point out that Sunderland's XG stats last season were relegation-level. But let's not forget: six players were off at the Africa Cup of Nations in the winter, no key player was sold, the squad's spirit is apparently superb, and pre-season has been reassuringly convincing. Le Bris admits Thursday night football will be a challenge for a club that was in League One as recently as 2022, but he insists it's a problem to enjoy, not fear.
Helping matters: captain Granit Xhaka is still around, having turned down Chelsea's advances (take that, London). He's joined by a cast of high-caliber characters, including fan favorite Enzo Le Fée, Chris Rigg, Robin Roefs, Noah Sadiki, and Nordi Mukiele. And then there's Brian Brobbey, the kind of robust center-forward defenders dread marking. "We are growing together," says Le Bris. "We've shown the team is strong." Translation: we're not selling anyone, so deal with it.
Sunderland's majority owner is 29-year-old Swiss-French billionaire Kyril Louis-Dreyfus, who holds a 64% stake, while Uruguayan businessman-politician Juan Sartori holds the remaining 36%. The harmony between Le Bris and director of football Florent Ghisolfi keeps things stable on the pitch, but off it, there's been a corporate shuffle. The team toured the US this summer, and there's a lucrative, controversial front-of-shirt sponsorship with Visit Ghana in the works. Meanwhile, the area around the Stadium of Light is getting a makeover, because nothing says progress like gentrifying post-industrial wastelands.
Louis-Dreyfus, initially met with skepticism when he took over in 2021, has won over fans by personally convincing Xhaka to join from Bayer Leverkusen. Less popular: creeping corporate hospitality and a divisive membership scheme that has season-ticket holders split.
Le Bris, a 50-year-old with a doctorate in physiology and biomechanics and a diploma in mental training, likes to surf in Brittany during the off-season. Last season, he rode a footballing wave, winning the Championship playoffs and then proving the Premier League wasn't too big for his team. He even beat Newcastle twice, which is probably the highlight of any Sunderland season. His coaching philosophy? It's all about triangles, because football is basically geometry with a ball.
Sunderland tried to sign Thomas Meunier from Lille a year ago, failed, but got him on a free transfer this summer at age 34. He's the sole signing so far - quite a change from 14 new faces last year - but more are expected. Meunier, with 83 Belgium caps and stints at PSG and Borussia Dortmund, will battle Mukiele and Trai Hume for the right-back spot. His experience should come in handy in the Europa League.
If matches were decided by expected points, Sunderland would have been relegated. Instead, they're prepping for Europa League after finishing 11 places higher than XG suggested. That gap between stats and reality was the widest in Europe's big five leagues. So either they're overperforming, or the stats are just wrong. We'll let you decide.
Keep an eye on 17-year-old Tom Proctor, son of former Sunderland forward Michael Proctor. He's in his second year as an academy scholar and made the US tour squad. With Europa League stretching the squad, he might just make his competitive debut. He's been at the academy since age six, so he's basically a Sunderland lifer at this point.
Finally, Sunderland sent 12 players to the World Cup - more than Real Madrid - which delighted the marketing folks. Wilson Isidor scored Haiti's first World Cup goal since 1974, and Brobbey netted three for the Netherlands. They've since been joined by Meunier, who played for Belgium. So if you're counting, that's a lot of international experience, which is either a good thing or a recipe for jet lag.