Next Upgrades Profit Outlook Again, Because Why Not Keep Beating Expectations?
Next raises profit guidance for the third time, proving that beating expectations is its favorite pastime, while other retailers wonder what they're doing wrong.
In a plot twist that surprises absolutely no one, Next has upgraded its profit guidance for the third time this year, insisting that UK shoppers are still willing to part with their cash despite the collective grimace over household budgets. The clothing and homeware giant credited sunny weather and a burst of "pent-up demand" from the Middle East and northern Europe for its performance in the 13 weeks ending on 1 August.
Next, which holds the UK rights to US brands Gap and Victoria's Secret, along with stakes in labels like Reiss and Joules, saw full-price sales jump 9% in the second quarter compared to last year - more than double its initial guess of 4%. The FTSE 100 company, with over 500 stores, has a storied history of setting the bar low and then pole-vaulting over it.
This habit has helped its share price climb over 20% in the past year. Under the stewardship of CEO Simon Wolfson, Next now expects a pre-tax profit of £1.2bn for the year, about £25m higher than previously forecast and a potential 7.3% rise from last year. Shares soared nearly 7% to a record high on Wednesday morning, making it the FTSE 100's top performer.
Garry White, chief investment commentator at Raymond James, noted that Next's update shows it can "outperform despite a challenging backdrop for consumer spending." He added, "If there is one lesson investors have learned from Next over the years, it is that management has a habit of under-promising and over-delivering, making guidance upgrades feel less like surprises and more a feature of the investment case."
Meanwhile, other retailers are singing a different tune, grappling with a tough trading environment, inflation, and falling consumer confidence amid the Iran war. Last month, the boss of John Lewis told employees that profits were being squeezed by "really tough" conditions. Jason Tarry, chair of the John Lewis Partnership, admitted in an internal magazine interview that the chain would "trade into lower sales and higher costs," adding, "We have to adjust for an immediate future that we weren't expecting even six months ago, let alone a couple of years ago." So while Next is basking in the glow of its own success, John Lewis is just trying to hold its nerve and not chase top-line sales. Different strokes, indeed.
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