WASHINGTON - NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman has a new prediction that sounds like the plot of a sci-fi thriller: China will likely send a crewed mission around the moon in 2027, meaning the next people to wave at Earth from lunar orbit might not be speaking English.
Speaking at the ASCEND conference on May 19, Isaacman warned that “the next time the world tunes in to watch astronauts fly around the moon, which will likely be sometime in 2027, they will be taikonauts, and America will no longer be the exclusive power to send humans into the lunar environment.” It's a stark reminder that the moon is getting crowded, and the U.S. might be the one left standing on the launchpad.
China hasn't officially announced such a mission, but rumors are swirling faster than a SpaceX rocket. Isaacman's prediction echoes the kind of mission NASA plans for Artemis 2, which will send astronauts (including Canadian Jeremy Hansen, because teamwork makes the dream work) around the moon. So far, all crewed lunar missions have been American, from Apollo 8 to Artemis 2, but that monopoly might be ending.
Isaacman has been using the China threat as a persuasive argument for overhauling the Artemis program. In February, he announced that Artemis 3, originally a 2028 lunar landing attempt, is now a 2027 test flight in low Earth orbit, with the actual landing pushed to Artemis 4 in 2028. In March, he effectively canceled the lunar Gateway to focus on a lunar base, while calling for more robotic lander missions.
“Now we find ourselves with a real geopolitical rival challenging American leadership in the high ground of space,” Isaacman said at the Ignition event in March. “NASA has stated we will return Americans to the moon before the end of President Trump’s term. Our great competitor said before 2030. The difference between success and failure will be measured in months, not years. They may be early, and recent history suggests we might be late.”
At a House appropriations subcommittee hearing on April 27, Isaacman argued that before the recent changes, China was leading in the race to land humans on the moon. “Up until a few months ago, the odds were in their favor for it to happen before America returns,” he said. “We have a far more achievable plan now.” He added that the Chinese “are just like we were in the ’60s” - focused and fast. “We have a path to do this right now, but it is going to be extremely close, and I can’t emphasize that enough.”
Congress seems to be listening. Days after the hearing, the Commerce, Justice and Science appropriations subcommittee approved a spending bill for fiscal year 2027 that gave NASA more exploration funding than the administration requested, while cutting elsewhere. Subcommittee chairman Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Ky., assured Isaacman: “Our chore in this environment is oversight and budgetary, but we’re also your big cheerleader and we want you to succeed.”