In the latest installment of ‘What Could Possibly Go Wrong at Sea?’, a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz found out the hard way. The Minoan Pioneer, a Greek-owned, Liberian-flagged bulk carrier, was chugging along about 20 nautical miles north of Oman when it got nailed by an unknown projectile. The result: a blackout in the engine room, a fire in the accommodation area, and a missing third engineer who hasn’t been seen since. The crew scrambled, called for help, and eventually got off the ship - but one of their own didn’t make it.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations is investigating, but hasn’t officially pointed fingers. Windward, a maritime intelligence outfit, noted that prior attacks at that exact spot were Iranian in origin - though Iran, as is its wont, denies involvement. In the 24 hours before, two oil tankers reported near-misses. So, just another Tuesday in the Gulf, where the US-led war on Iran has entered month six.
This is the grim reality for some 20,000 seafarers who’ve been effectively trapped in the Gulf since February. They sailed in expecting a routine trip; they got a front-row seat to a geopolitical standoff. Iran has blockaded the waterway, turning normal shipping into a psychological endurance test. One seafarer told the Guardian about a crewmate having a breakdown. Seventeen seafarers have died since hostilities began, mostly from Iranian strikes.
Hopes have been raised and dashed repeatedly. The April ceasefire and the June peace deal both collapsed faster than a house of cards in a hurricane. Some tankers scurried out during the brief window of the memorandum of understanding (MOU), but 6,000 seafarers on 500 vessels remain trapped, per the UN’s International Maritime Organization.
“These are innocent people trained to do the work, not combat,” said Arsenio Dominguez, the IMO’s secretary-general. “The vessels can’t defend themselves against missiles and drones.” Savio Ramos, general secretary of the Maritime Union of India, compared the situation to prison: “You don’t know where you’re going, you don’t know what you’re doing. It gets to you after some time.”
Most crews get supplies ferried from shore, but there’s no escape. Some Indian crew members have gone home, but only if other senior officers volunteer to replace them - a hard sell when your office might get hit by a missile. Talks mediated by Oman are ongoing, but a proposed deal would give Iran control over Gulf traffic, which shipowners find about as appealing as a hole in the hull.
Traffic through the strait has plummeted. In the week from 27 July to 2 August, only 52 non-Iranian-linked vessels transited, plus 32 Iranian-linked ones - 84 total, just over 10% of the pre-conflict average of 700 per week. That leaves 70 large oil and gas tankers from mainstream companies stranded since February, and another 65 that entered after the MOU and can’t leave.
Who are these unlucky souls? Likely mostly Indians and Filipinos, the world’s top two seafarer suppliers, with 312,000 and 460,000 workers respectively. And the danger isn’t confined to the Gulf - hostilities have spread to the Red Sea, Iraq, and the Black Sea, where Russia and Ukraine are now attacking each other’s ships. Lloyd’s List called July “one of the deadliest months ever for commercial seafarers,” with 24 killed since July 1.
Industry folks worry that if this keeps up, fewer seafarers will want to sail into harm’s way - or go to sea at all. As Dominguez pointed out, without seafarers, 90% of goods transported by ship won’t reach their destinations, and we’ll all feel it. So next time you buy something that arrived by sea, spare a thought for the folks stuck in the Gulf, waiting for a peace deal that actually sticks.