In a development that will surprise absolutely no one who has filled up a petrol tank lately, UK inflation and government borrowing both hit their highest levels in a year on Wednesday. The timing is impeccable, as it comes just a week before Chancellor John Healey delivers his first Budget, presumably while clutching a calculator and a stiff drink.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the pace of price rises accelerated to 3.5% in the year to September, up from 3.1% in August. That's the highest inflation has been since October 2025, driven largely by sharp increases in petrol and diesel prices. Because nothing says 'economic recovery' like paying more to get to work.

In a plot twist that shocks no one, the cost of filling up a vehicle has soared thanks to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Europe. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran after US and Israeli attacks has severely disrupted a major global supply line for crude oil. Meanwhile, oil refining capacity has been hampered globally by Russian and Ukrainian attacks on each other's infrastructure following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's almost as if global geopolitics has a direct impact on your commute.

Petrol prices in September were the highest since August 2022, with the average price of petrol rising by 8.2p per litre to 169.5p per litre between August and September. Diesel, not to be outdone, rocketed to 192.5p per litre. Motor fuel prices overall rose by a whopping 29.8% in the period covered by the figures. ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner called the increase 'notable' - which is economist-speak for 'ouch'.

But wait, there's more. The inflation figure wasn't just about fuel. Fitzner noted that rising prices for airfares, computer games and live events also contributed. Because who doesn't love paying more for a flight, a video game, and a concert ticket all at once?

September's inflation figure is also important because it determines how benefits will increase next April. The state pension will most likely rise by 3.9%, in line with average wage rises from May to July, due to the triple lock. Other benefits like personal independence payment (PIP) and carer's allowance must rise in line with September's consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation. So at least there's a silver lining for pensioners and carers, even as everyone else feels the squeeze.

With a week to go until the Budget, Healey said: 'We know that price rises from conflicts in the Middle East and Europe are hitting Britain and countries worldwide.' He pointed out that the International Monetary Fund last week praised the UK government for its 'fiscal discipline', and that the government has just given the go-ahead for getting more gas from the North Sea's Jackdaw field. The Budget on 28 October will 'keep up this momentum', he said, by sticking to the government's self-imposed fiscal rules, and by driving 'growth in every postcode, while giving businesses and families some breathing space'. Breathing space, presumably, while you pay 169.5p for a litre of petrol.

But the inflation figure came as the ONS said the government borrowed £24.5bn in September, £1.8bn higher than a year earlier, as higher inflation helped to push up debt interest costs. The overshoot means, cumulatively, the government has borrowed £6bn more this year than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had forecast. Despite overall debt topping £3tn for the first time, debt as a proportion of the UK's economic output - the measure used by the government to judge whether it is in line with its fiscal rules - fell. Because nothing says 'fiscal responsibility' like borrowing more than expected while debt hits a record high.

The Conservatives, never ones to miss an opportunity, said higher inflation and borrowing showed Labour had 'lost control of the economy'. Shadow Chancellor Andrew Griffith called for Healey to use his Budget to 'tackle the deficit, and reduce the red tape and net zero costs that are driving up the cost of living for families'. He added that the Conservatives would cut taxes, the costs of benefits and 'wasteful' spending to 'make our country prosperous again'. Ah, the classic 'we'd do it better' routine - always a crowd-pleaser.

Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said the borrowing figures 'painted a dismal picture' ahead of Healey's Budget. She noted that the amount borrowed in September was higher than analyst expectations as well as the OBR's forecast. 'This reinforces our view that the Chancellor will deliver a cautious Budget on 28 October that has little net impact on the economy and leaves the toughest fiscal choices for next year,' she said. In other words: don't expect any miracles - or any immediate relief at the pump.