The annual tradition of Indonesia's forests smoldering like a forgotten campfire has once again sent a toxic haze wafting over Singapore and Malaysia, because nothing says 'good neighbor' like sharing respiratory illnesses and headaches. This year's blazes in Kalimantan, Papua, and Sumatra have been particularly stubborn, thanks to a strong El Niño that turned drought conditions into a tinderbox. While previous haze episodes typically lasted a few days, this one stretched into weeks, giving everyone ample time to perfect their cough.
The haze has also ignited a different kind of headache: political ones. Governments are caught between fed-up citizens and the risk of souring ties with Indonesia. "People are fed up, angry and anxious," says Eugene Tan, associate professor of law at Singapore Management University. "The governments have to respond to them, or else what is more an external issue has become an internal one with ample headroom for politicisation." In other words, nothing like a little cross-border smog to make domestic politics interesting.
In Malaysia, locals launched a boycott of Indonesian products after lawmaker Syed Saddiq called for sanctions on companies linked to the wildfires and said Malaysians should "treat them as an outcast in the region." Meanwhile, Singaporeans - accustomed to seamless efficiency - are grumbling that the government dropped the ball. "There appears to be the view that the government dropped the ball in dealing with the haze, given that it was known that the El Niño weather phenomenon would be severe and that early warning was given," Tan notes. "Clearly, Singaporeans expect the government to decisively deal with the polluters."
Singapore has responded with typical efficiency: hundreds of haze shelters, masks for the vulnerable, and investigations into 10 Singapore-registered companies potentially linked to the fires. Foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan met Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Jakarta for "honest" and "sincere" conversations that produced "constructive approaches" - diplomatic speak for "we agreed to disagree, but politely." The two countries announced a joint task force to tackle the haze, a apparent détente after weeks of simmering tensions.
But not everyone got the memo. One senior Indonesian official ruffled feathers by claiming the wildfires were out of human control and that oxygen in Singapore and Malaysia "also comes from our forests." Singapore's senior minister K Shanmugam called the remark "disappointing" and "not right" - a rare rebuke from the city-state, which prides itself on diplomatic prowess. "The haze is affecting our health seriously, and it's really unacceptable," Shanmugam told reporters, adding that since the haze impacts citizens on both sides, there should not be "any bilateral issues" in addressing it. "The Indonesian public is suffering as well, and it is in Indonesia's interest as much as ours to deal with the companies that are causing these problems."
Days later, Indonesia announced it would reduce gas exports to Singapore, citing domestic energy needs - a move many saw as retaliation. The reduction amounts to less than 2% of Singapore's total daily demand, so it's about as threatening as a gentle breeze. But the timing was suspicious, coming just after Indonesia's energy minister warned they could halt gas exports to countries that don't "respect Indonesia," and Prabowo himself referenced "countries that like to insult Indonesia" when discussing the wildfires.
"It's a tired playbook of using Singapore as the bogeyman, driven by the 'abang-adik' [big brother-little brother] syndrome," Tan says, referring to the historical dynamic where Singapore is expected to defer to its larger neighbor. "Singapore leaders expressing concerns about the haze and how it affects the people of both countries have been taken to mean that Singapore has been disrespectful to its neighbour."
Malaysia, meanwhile, has taken a more muted approach. Foreign minister Mohamad Hasan ruled out a formal diplomatic protest or legal action, saying such moves "would mean we were prepared to sever relations." Instead, Malaysia has agreed to explore a memorandum of understanding with Indonesia to strengthen wildfire prevention and will rely on diplomatic mechanisms like the Asean Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution. That agreement, in effect since 2003, commits Asean members to collaborate on the haze - but many see it as toothless, unable to punish agricultural companies or force governments to act.
The agreement has turned out to be "just not worth the paper it was signed on," says James Chin, professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania. "The moment the haze disappears, the moment the political pressure's off, it's back to business as usual." In 2016, Asean countries set a goal to eliminate haze by 2020. When that deadline drifted quietly by, they set a new target of 2030. Because nothing says commitment like kicking the can down the road.
Complicating Malaysia's position is its own status as a major palm oil producer - a commodity often linked to the "slash-and-burn" practices blamed for the fires. In 2019, when Malaysia pointed to hotspots in Indonesia's peatlands, Indonesian authorities pointed right back, claiming the smog came from Malaysia's side. "As long as we place a lot of importance on oil palm planting, [the haze] is going to recur," says Ei Sun Oh, principal adviser at the Pacific Research Centre of Malaysia. And even if Malaysia wanted to speak up, it lacks the "leverage" Singapore has as Indonesia's largest foreign investor and an offshore financial hub for wealthy Indonesians.
For now, Malaysia "doesn't want to unduly provoke Indonesia," Oh says. "The government is just wringing their hands till the wind blows [the problem] over. Because eventually it will blow over." And if history is any guide, it will - right until next year's dry season.