China's homegrown passenger jet, the Comac C919, is set to make its first international flight on Wednesday, departing from Beijing Capital International Airport at 3pm and landing in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia's capital, just over two hours later. Because nothing says 'global challenger' like a hop to the nearest neighbor.

The C919 has been touted as China's answer to the Boeing-Airbus duopoly that has dominated global aviation, especially in Asia. But analysts, with their pesky habit of looking at actual facts, suggest it might take generations before a Chinese aircraft can meaningfully challenge the status quo. The C919, made by state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac), is similar in size to a Boeing 737 and has been flying domestic routes since 2023. Wednesday's Air China flight to Ulaanbaatar marks its commercial international debut.

"This is essentially a public relations move," said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. "Ulaanbaatar was likely chosen because of how close it is to Beijing. It doesn't change the fact that the plane was years overdue, is composed of western components, and is less efficient than its Boeing and Airbus cousins." Ouch. But he's not wrong.

China has long dreamed of building its own jet, with Li Jiaxiang, head of China's civil aviation authority, declaring in 2015: "A great nation must have its own large commercial aircraft." Yet progress has been slow, even as China zips ahead in other hi-tech fields like robotics and electric vehicles. Why? Because building a jet is hard. Very hard. As Kyle Chan, a fellow at Brookings, explains: "Large passenger aircraft and jet engines are extremely complex and challenging to manufacture. They require precision components, complex electro-mechanical control systems, and the ability to coordinate a vast global supply chain. There's a reason there are basically only two major commercial aircraft makers in the world. Building large passenger jets that are safe and reliable is an order of magnitude more difficult than making EVs."

Indeed, an analysis by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in 2020 found that more than half of the C919's suppliers are in the US. Last year, Comac reportedly delivered only 15 C919s, well short of its target of 75. The company didn't respond to a request for comment.

Comac primarily serves Chinese domestic airlines, with the exception of Brunei-based GallopAir, which signed a $2bn deal in 2023 for 30 planes (including 15 C919s) but isn't operating commercially yet. The C919 hasn't been approved by European or American regulators. Last year, the US reportedly suspended exports of some products for the C919 amid the tit-for-tat trade war, though a truce was later agreed that expires in November. When President Donald Trump visited Beijing in May, one takeaway was China's agreement to buy 200 Boeing jets, with the US providing supply guarantees for engine parts.

China sees building its own commercial aircraft as a national security priority. Zhang Yanzhong, an academic at the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a leading aviation expert who worked on the C919, told state media that reliance on other countries for large aircraft technology would "threaten national strategic security." But he admitted there's "a long way to go before achieving commercial success."

Experts note Comac's dependence goes beyond components - international suppliers have also guided how to integrate complex systems into a sky-worthy aircraft. Kennedy argues it's misleading to call the C919 a Chinese plane, and says it's "very unlikely" Comac will become a serious challenger "even a generation from now." Chan adds that Comac faces "a long road to gaining trust among airlines and passengers."

Still, Zhang calls on China's young engineers to contribute, saying: "Though the journey may be fraught with difficulties, a fledgling eagle can soar faster than its parent." We'll see if that eagle can fly more than two hours without a western GPS.