In a plot twist that even the most cynical crime drama wouldn't dare write, Andy Burnham is spending his final hours negotiating which child rapists and serious sex offenders should be spared the government's early release scheme - because, you know, there's only so much room in the prison estate before the whole thing collapses like a house of cards in a hurricane.
Government ministers have a tight 24-hour window to figure out which criminals can be set free early to free up cells, with every exemption weighed against the grim prospect of the criminal justice system keeling over. The prime minister, in his second week on the job, wisely slammed the brakes on plans to release thousands of killers, rapists, and sex offenders in September - a move that was supposed to ease critical overcrowding but instead sparked a moral panic and a scheduling conflict with Kemi Badenoch in the Commons.
Burnham is adamant about keeping child rapists and other serious sexual abusers behind bars, especially after victims' representatives and support services cried foul, warning that without safeguards, abuse victims would be left high and dry. A review of the scheme is due to wrap up by end of Monday, giving the Prison Service just enough time to prepare for the inevitable chaos.
But here's the rub: if nothing changes, prisons will run out of space faster than a London flat at rent day. And if some criminals are exempted, you can bet your bottom dollar there'll be a queue of others demanding the same treatment. The former justice secretary, David Lammy, who set this whole ball rolling with the act that enabled the releases, previously warned that without it, jails in England and Wales would be at capacity by November. His successor, Alex Norris, appointed by Burnham on 20 July, is now left holding the bag.
The early release scheme - complete with a shiny new expansion in electronic tagging - is still expected to launch this autumn with an initial batch of about 700 offenders, despite probation officers predicting it'll be a hot mess. A government source put it bluntly: "If we don't take any action, we will run out of room - it's not sustainable at all."
Meanwhile, the family of PC Andrew Harper is none too pleased, with his mother, Debbie Adlam, calling the potential early release of two of her son's killers, Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers, "another letdown." New sentencing laws, passed under Keir Starmer's government, were meant to stave off the overcrowding crisis that ministers claim could freeze the justice system. Victims' advocates worry that high prisoner numbers will limit how many serious criminals can be exempted - a real Sophie's choice.
Jess Phillips, the former safeguarding minister and a vocal critic, thinks exemptions are a step in the right direction but insists there needs to be "a whole system change with how victims and risk is managed as the sentencing review goes forward," involving victims' agencies, probation officers, and police. Under the Sentencing Act 2026, which passed in January, serious offenders become eligible for release halfway through their sentences instead of two-thirds, and those with lesser crimes can be freed after a third instead of 40%. The law also curbs short-term prison stays, replacing them with probation and community orders - which critics say will strain an already overburdened probation service.
Phillips argues any review must look beyond just early release to the presumption against short sentences. "Exemptions are an immediate safety crisis, but real in-depth work to make the situation better forever and be one based on risk and rehabilitation must be done," she said. Claire Waxman, the victims' commissioner for England and Wales, met Norris on Wednesday and told the Telegraph she's "cautiously more hopeful" about progress, though she welcomed his acknowledgment that victims had been let down.
But prison reform groups and government officials are fuming over Burnham's decision to pause the scheme, warning that abandoning measures to ease overcrowding could lead to the justice system "collapsing under its own weight." Ciara Bergman, chief executive of Rape Crisis England and Wales, says centres have been supporting victims through the "distress and terror of finding out that their rapists and abusers were due to be released … or in some cases already had been." She added, "Victim-survivors should never have been put in this situation, not least because so little is known about the factors which make some more likely to offend than others, and how sexual violence offenders can effectively be managed and monitored in the community."
A Ministry of Justice spokesperson, in a classic deflection, blamed the crisis on "14 years of Conservative neglect" and promised to "pull every lever to protect the public and cut crime" - including building new prisons, expanding tagging, strengthening community punishment, and giving victims a say in licence conditions. They also confirmed the pause on September changes is for an "urgent review" to get the policy right for victims "without running out of prison spaces." Because, as we all know, running out of prison spaces is just a minor inconvenience, right?