Britain is “sleepwalking into a food crisis” caused by extreme weather, inflation, and the Iran war, and the government is apparently treating the whole thing like a minor inconvenience, food experts have said. Farmers are currently enduring a heatwave after a dry spring, with crops likely to yield less as temperatures exceed their tolerance. Livestock are suffering heat stress, wildfires are on the rise, and economic losses could hit hundreds of millions of pounds. Because nothing says “resilient nation” like scorched fields and panting cows.
Food prices are already projected to be 50% higher this November than five years ago, and the current weather - with more heatwaves expected, possibly topping 40°C - is adding to the inflationary pressure. Even if the Iran war ends soon, fuel and fertiliser prices will stay high until the supply crunch through the Strait of Hormuz eases. Chancellor Rachel Reeves floated the idea of voluntary price caps on staple foods last week, but supermarkets and opposition parties promptly told her to keep dreaming.
A group of food experts wrote to ministers this week demanding an update to the national food strategy to account for these risks and prepare the UK for a future of higher temperatures and worse weather. The nine signatories include Mike Barry (former director of sustainable business at Marks & Spencer), Anna Taylor (executive director of the Food Foundation), and Lee Stiles (secretary of the Lea Valley Growers’ Association). They highlighted three priorities: resilient domestic production of healthier food, greater preparedness for supply chain shocks, and access to safe, affordable, healthy food for all. Ambitious, but maybe start with “not having everything on fire.”
Tim Lang, a professor emeritus of food policy at City St George’s, University of London, said the government’s current strategy amounts to little more than “business as usual” - which, in this context, is like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. “This government has received serious scientific, intelligence and policy advice that it should take significant action on food security, but it keeps signalling all is OK. It’s not,” Lang told the Guardian. He added that ministers are behind the public in awareness and readiness, calling volatility “the new normal.”
Retired General Richard Nugee, another signatory, told the Guardian that food security should be a top-level national security concern. “There’s the potential for food to be reduced in quantity through heat domes over grain baskets in Europe and around the world,” he said, noting that the UK’s food chain is being damaged by war and export/import disruptions. While civil unrest is unlikely, Nugee warned that people “being extremely stressed by not being able to afford food” might take matters into their own hands - because nothing says “national security” like a hungry populace.
A report by UK spy chiefs - partially published last year - told ministers that collapsing ecosystems overseas pose a national security risk, potentially leading to conflict, migration, and resource competition. The Climate Change Committee advised the government last week not to let domestic food production drop below 60% of the UK’s needs, noting that climate damage to food production could exceed £2 billion annually by the 2030s, up from about £200 million today. Jez Fredenburgh, a senior analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, summed it up neatly: “Farmers and consumers cannot afford this pressure.” The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs was approached for comment but, presumably, is still deciding whether to wake up.