Anthropic, the AI startup that makes the Claude models, is reportedly planning to go public in October at a valuation of $2 trillion or more. That's a number so dizzying it would make SpaceX's $1.77 trillion IPO look like a bake sale, and would mark the largest initial public offering in history. Because who needs modest expectations when you have exponential revenue growth?
Half a dozen of the company's backers told the Financial Times that Anthropic's rapidly rising revenue would justify more than doubling its current valuation. A listing at that level could unlock billions of dollars in gains for early investors, but it would also test public markets that are growing increasingly nervous about the AI boom - a boom that has all the stability of a toddler on a sugar high.
Investors are banking on booming demand for Anthropic's advanced AI models. They expect the company's annualized revenue to hit between $100 billion and $120 billion by the end of 2026, using the startup's preferred measure that infers full-year sales from recent performance. That's a more than tenfold increase over the course of 2026. As one investor put it, "If Anthropic is growing 800 percent a year, you'd think at the incredibly low end they would trade at 30 times [revenue]. That would make them a $3 trillion company." Apparently, 30 times revenue is the "low end" now. Meanwhile, companies like Palantir and Nebius, which are seen as AI beneficiaries, trade at roughly 55 times revenue.
Anthropic lacks a publicly listed US peer to benchmark against, which is convenient because it means they can make up the numbers as they go. Several investors said senior executives haven't even fixed a valuation target for the IPO, even in private conversations. But investors have built their own financial models, because who needs clarity when you have optimism?
These bullish projections come despite mounting challenges, including rising competition from Chinese rivals, pressure for AI regulation, and a simmering feud with the US government. That feud culminated in the Commerce Department temporarily banning Anthropic's best models in June, which spooked some customers and contributed to a slowdown in revenue growth that month. But the company rebounded, because in Silicon Valley, a temporary setback is just a prelude to an even bigger comeback.
The startup led by Dario Amodei filed paperwork with the SEC in June, which means it's in a quiet period and can't talk about its financial performance. But that hasn't stopped investors from talking. Anthropic has gained ground on rivals OpenAI and Google this year, releasing models that outperform competitors while focusing on business customers. In May, the company announced its annualized revenue had surpassed $47 billion.
Venture capitalists, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors have poured just under $100 billion into the company in 2026. Anthropic's valuation leapfrogged OpenAI's for the first time in May, reaching $965 billion. That's a lot of zeros, and it's only going to get more zero-heavy.
But the company faces considerable uncertainty. It has clashed with the Trump administration and is in active litigation against the Department of Defense, which labeled Anthropic a supply-chain risk earlier this year. The Commerce Department's export controls forced Anthropic to briefly pull its leading models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, in June. That episode, combined with rising costs, has made customers jittery. Some are reversing directives for employees to maximize AI use and opting for cheaper, less powerful models.
Anthropic's market-leading model costs more than two and a half times as much to use as OpenAI's flagship, while Chinese open-weight alternatives - which have also improved dramatically this year - cost a fraction of the price, according to Artificial Analysis. Last month, Anthropic increased its market share among US businesses, according to payments group Ramp. But analysts there found that businesses were "hitting their limit on AI spend" and turning to cheaper alternatives.
"It's easy to come up with challenges," said an Anthropic investor who has also backed OpenAI and SpaceX. "But the company continues to be in first position in performance, positioning, and what people want exposure to." Indeed, when you're in first position, the $2 trillion valuation seems almost conservative. Almost.