Globally, most people say they want two or more children, but a significant number are settling for one or none. The latest UNFPA State of World Population report reveals that around one in five adults worldwide believes they won't achieve their desired family size, largely due to economic insecurity, inequality, and lack of support. UNFPA economist and demographer Michael Herrmann, speaking at the Commission on Population and Development in New York, cautions against viewing this as a crisis. "Demographic change is not a crisis in itself," he says, advocating instead for a concept called demographic resilience.
Demographic resilience involves helping societies anticipate population shifts, adapt their institutions, and better utilize human potential. This approach is applicable to both developing and wealthy nations, regardless of whether their populations are growing, shrinking, or ageing. Herrmann notes that some countries experience a "demographic dividend" from a growing working-age population, while others further along in the transition can benefit from a "second dividend" by investing in education, health, skills, and technology to boost productivity.
One visible effect of ageing populations is a shrinking workforce, to which many governments have responded by raising retirement ages. Herrmann criticizes this as a blunt instrument that ignores the different capacities, preferences, and life circumstances of older adults. He suggests offering more flexible options, like part-time or less demanding roles, to help older workers stay engaged while easing pressure on pension systems, rather than simply forcing everyone to work longer.
As birth rates fall, some governments react with cash bonuses, tax breaks, or official fertility targets, but evidence suggests these have limited and short-lived impact. "One-off payments don't change long-term decisions," Herrmann notes, saying they may only influence when people have children, not whether they do. UNFPA's new Youth Reproductive Choices Survey, underway in 70 countries, asks people directly why they are having fewer children than they want, highlighting economic and social pressures like high housing and childcare costs, insecure employment, and worries about the future, including political instability and climate change.
Unequal gender roles, with women often bearing most unpaid care and domestic work, also weigh heavily. "These are not issues that can be solved with a cheque," Herrmann says. He warns that policies driven by fear of population decline can undermine rights, particularly for women, through harmful assumptions like women staying home, curtailing sex education, or restricting access to reproductive healthcare.
A rights-based approach starts by asking what prevents people from having the children they want, leading to practical solutions like affordable housing, accessible childcare, parental leave for both parents, stable jobs, and equal pay. Such policies support families without coercion. While ageing populations pose real challenges for pension and health systems, they do not automatically spell economic decline. Spending on health and long-term care also creates jobs in locally-rooted services, and older people contribute in many ways beyond paid work.