Ukraine Strikes Russian Rocket Factory as Space Becomes the Newest Front Nobody Signed a Treaty For

For residents of Samara, the Russian industrial city on the Volga, the first indication that their morning would be disrupted came in the form of detonations and a column of smoke. The Kremlin, as is its custom, was vague about what had been hit in the early hours of 15 August. Social media video, however, quickly clarified matters: the target was the Progress Rocket and Space Centre, manufacturer of Russia's Soyuz-2 rockets.

Two Flamingo missiles struck a pair of buildings, including a facility designated 106A - a "clean room" where motherboards for Soyuz launch systems were assembled. Amid Ukraine's broader campaign against Russian refineries and industry, the Samara strike stood out, offering evidence that the war's geography has expanded into a domain previously reserved for treaties nobody can quite enforce: space.

In a conflict already redefining warfare through heavy drone use and battlefield sensors, access to satellites - and the ability to disrupt the other side's - has become ever more critical. The Samara attack was a case in point, targeting the rockets that deliver Russia's new Rassvet satellite system, being rapidly deployed as a replacement for Elon Musk's Starlink, from which Russia was shut out earlier this year.

Ukraine has also struck other Roscosmos sites this year, including Korolyov, a large complex north of Moscow, and a Ukrainian-built radio telescope captured by Russia in Crimea. Russia's Rassvet ambitions are not Ukraine's only space-based headache. Moscow has used Oreshnik ballistic missiles on at least three occasions - a system that launches into near space and then deploys multiple independently targetable warheads originally designed for nuclear weapons.

All of which has prompted Kyiv to intensify efforts to diversify its space-based systems away from the US and Starlink - controversially throttled in recent weeks - and to develop countermeasures against threats like the Oreshnik. Ukraine has conducted at least three tests of near-space interceptions while pursuing its own sovereign satellites, joining a rapidly expanding club of countries seeking a foothold in orbit.

That became reality last month when Ukraine and Denmark's GomSpace announced the successful launch of the Obria Nano, the first test satellite for a future independent Ukrainian communications network reportedly envisaging about 245 satellites.

Experts say the conflict's incursion into space is merely the latest evidence of the rapid militarisation of a domain whose treaties remain ill-defined, outdated and difficult to enforce. In September, US air force secretary Troy Meink admitted for the first time that Washington had deployed "on-orbit space control weapons," amid reports that Russia had regularly flown satellites close to US and other countries' assets.

As if to underline the point, weeks later a Russian satellite, Kosmos 2612, was observed aggressively manoeuvring toward a commercial radar satellite operated by Finnish group Iceye, which provides three-dimensional terrain imaging to the Ukrainian military - what experts described as deliberate harassment.

"[Space warfare] has been talked about as the future," says Dr Elena Grossfeld, an expert on space and security at the Swedish Defence University. "But we're already in that future." For Russia, Grossfeld argues, space has become essential to military success, with Moscow treating offensive operations there as a precursor to broader conflict in a reality where war is inseparable from satellite-based intelligence and targeting.

"This started before the war in Ukraine," Grossfeld said. "The US Space Force [then second in command, Gen David Thompson] said in 2021 that the US was seeing daily attacks [by Russia and China] on US satellites. They are not necessarily kinetic, but now with the war and with everyone's dependency on space for intelligence and communications, it has become front and centre."

While Grossfeld said Russia's intention in the recent "bullying" of the Iceye satellite was unclear, one possibility was forcing it to burn fuel changing course and thereby shortening its lifespan. Russia has also used signal jamming, laser-dazzling of satellites, and placed "inspector" spy satellites near foreign space assets.

Complicating matters, experts say, is that treaties on space governance and weapons deployment have been overtaken in recent years. Victoria Samson, head of the space security and stability programme at the Secure World Foundation, noted a rapid increase in countries operating in space, alongside expanded commercial activity by companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin.

But while many countries have opted for SpaceX launches, Musk's recent actions toward Ukraine - cutting Starlink data speeds - have forced a rapid rethink of relying on unreliable, sometimes ideologically driven commercial ventures. "The big shift in the past decade," said Samson, "has been towards commercial space operations and that has been an issue in the current conflict."

Like Grossfeld, Samson sees frictions in space becoming more overt. "It's all part of strategic competition," she said of the Russian satellite-bullying incident, adding that with more escalation there had been "more openness on the US side to talk about what they are doing [in relation to weapons in space] while Russia and China are working on a lot of the same stuff."

"Then there is the issue of space being used in an active military conflict. We have already seen Russia jamming GPS, which has resulted in aviation being disrupted over the Baltics. But it has been particularly visible in the issue of Starlink and in pauses by the US to sharing satellite intelligence with Ukraine [that warns] of incoming ballistic missiles."

If there has been a consequence of Musk's and the Trump administration's unreliability, Samson believes, it has been pushing countries to seek alternatives. "Like the Russians with [the] Rassvet network, everyone now wants their own versions of Starlink, including the Europeans."

For Ukraine, said Fedir Venislavskyi, head of the state security subcommittee of its parliamentary defence committee, that meant a "sovereign" Ukrainian presence in space, now achieved via the Obria Nano satellite. "Since the war the space domain has been crucial for Ukrainian forces and that has been underlined by recent events - whether at the instigation of the US government or from SpaceX - where we saw communications drop and jeopardise our military's command-and-control systems."

"Now we need to raise it to another level, not least because the enemy is already threatening Ukrainian territory from international space via Oreshnik missiles. It's essential we're not shortsighted about this risk."

With Russian launch sites now beyond the range of Ukraine's longest-range missiles, Ukraine has instead conducted three tests on exo-atmospheric kill systems to intercept launches in near space, including weapons piggybacked on very high-flying aircraft. "It is a priority," said Venislavskyi. "We've already demonstrated launches of exo-atmospheric systems and we are working to see if we can get that in production." He admitted, however, that given the war's demands, funding would be a significant issue.

In the meantime, the new race for space continues.