Saudi Arabia has long operated on a simple principle: throw enough money at the problem, and the problem goes away. But a new nuclear deal with the Trump administration suggests that even the most generous campaign contributors can get burned by the administration's signature chaos.

On July 22, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and his Saudi counterpart signed a civilian nuclear partnership - a multi-decade, multibillion-dollar deal allowing American companies to build and operate commercial nuclear plants in Saudi Arabia, potentially including a uranium-enrichment facility. The Saudis have been chasing this for nearly 20 years. Previous presidents from Obama onward were open to it - but only if Saudi Arabia agreed to safeguards against using enrichment for nukes and normalized relations with Israel.

Enter Donald Trump, back in the White House. The Saudis had invested heavily: licensing deals with the Trump Organization potentially worth billions, plus a huge commitment to Jared Kushner's private-equity firm. This week, that investment seemed to pay off. Details are sparse, but The Washington Post reported the deal opened a path to eventual Saudi nuclear weapons and dropped the precondition of recognizing Israel. The Saudis got everything they wanted with little sacrifice.

Then the reneging began. In a Truth Social post, Trump insisted the deal doesn't include enrichment and is "totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords” - i.e., recognizing Israel. Chaos erupted. Is Trump blowing up the deal after hearing Republican criticism on Fox News? Or is it just bluster? No one knows. Trump didn't consult Saudi leaders before adding a late condition.

The Saudis must be puzzled. They paid their quid. Where's the quo? Can criticism on Fox News cancel billions paid for Trump family favors?

This comes at a bad time for Saudi Arabia. Trump's failed Iran war has emboldened Tehran and tightened its hold on the Strait of Hormuz - Saudi Arabia's key oil route. The kingdom needs protection, but its traditional protector has proven fickle. Saudi Arabia may now see a nuclear force as a survival necessity in a post-American Middle East.

American advocates of the deal warned that if the U.S. doesn't partner with Saudi Arabia, it might turn to Russia or China. But past alternatives haven't worked: a Chinese-brokered rapprochement with Iran in 2023 didn't stop Iranian missile attacks. Other options look worse. Saudi Arabia reportedly financed Pakistan's nuclear program in the 1990s and may have a call on those weapons, but becoming a Pakistani protectorate is unappealing, especially with India as a top export market.

So back to Plan A. Is the nukes deal cooked? Trump often announces things on social media that don't happen. In 2019, he tweeted an order for all U.S. businesses out of China - dropped three days later. He's announced tariff increases that were shelved, military strikes never carried out (including a vow to invade Nigeria), and immigration pauses reversed days later. So maybe Trump's after-the-signature demand for Israel recognition is just noise.

America's democratic allies feel betrayed by Trump's pay-for-play diplomacy. But those willing to pay can suffer betrayals too. If not even the Saudis - who showered Trump with cash - can trust his diplomacy, who can?