WASHINGTON - In the high-stakes game of orbital musical chairs, satellite operators are now waving their launch contracts at investors like a winning lottery ticket, even when the rockets in question are about as reliable as a weather forecast for next spring.
During a flurry of second-quarter earnings calls, several companies proudly announced they've secured rides to space - sometimes two years out - amid an industry-wide panic to grab any available seat off this planet.
AST SpaceMobile, which is building a direct-to-device broadband constellation, knows this dance all too well. Their deployment was thrown off schedule by the May 28 explosion of a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket, which pushed commercial service back by three to six months, sliding into the first half of 2027. But fear not: executives said on their Aug. 10 call that they have enough launches booked to finish the job - about 45 satellites in orbit. So far, they've got 12 up there, including six launched on two Falcon 9 missions on June 17 and Aug. 5.
The company's presentation included a "detailed cadence of our deployment plan," which conveniently omitted launch dates but helpfully listed when satellites would be completed - with the final batch slated for February 2027. Because who needs a launch date when you have a completion date? The satellites on those recent Falcon 9 missions were finished the month before they flew, so at least there's that.
"We have 10 launches booked with two different providers, and we're targeting a cadence of every month or two on average," said Scott Wisniewski, AST's president, during the call. The near-term launches will likely be on Falcon 9, since New Glenn remains grounded. Blue Origin is aiming for a return to flight by year's end, but AST isn't holding its breath. "They're targeting this year. We're not betting on that necessarily," Wisniewski said. "We'll be happy if they do it, but we're not betting on that in our numbers."
To hit early 2027 with 45 satellites, AST will need some New Glenn launches, because Falcon 9 can only carry three BlueBirds at a time versus up to eight on New Glenn. United Launch Alliance's Vulcan rocket was floated as an alternative back in May, but Vulcan hasn't flown since February, when one of its solid rocket boosters had a tantrum. ULA hasn't said when it might resume.
On the Aug. 10 call, CFO Andy Johnson mentioned "partnerships and/or acquisitions to further vertically integrate our business and mitigate risks associated with third-party launch providers." Translation: they're considering buying a rocket company, though few are available for pocket change.
Meanwhile, other SpaceX rideshare regulars are nervously eyeing the rumor that SpaceX might scale back or kill its popular Falcon 9 Transporter and Bandwagon rideshare missions. HawkEye 360, which does radio-frequency geolocation from space, has launches locked through 2028, according to CEO John Serafini on Aug. 13. "We are fortunate to have all of our launches locked in through 2028, so it is not a near-term emergency or a near-term concern," he said, but beyond that, it's a free-for-all. "There are open questions about availability of launch beyond, into 2029, 2030 and beyond, particularly given a feeling in the industry that SpaceX might be reducing or eliminating some of the Falcon 9 Transporter or Bandwagon missions."
HawkEye 360 is now flirting with Firefly Aerospace, Stoke Space, Rocket Lab, and even launch brokers. "Fortunately, if this is two-plus years out, that gives more time for other platforms to become viable," Serafini said.
Spire Global echoed the sentiment on its Aug. 13 call. The company, which flies Lemur cubesats for tracking and weather data, has reserved capacity through 2028. "With launch capacity reserved through 2028, we can keep adding collection capacity on our own timeline, even in a constrained launch market," said CEO Theresa Condor. And by 2029? Well, they'll worry about that when they get there.