A major review has dropped the cheerful news that, without "urgent" action, one in six young people will not be in education, employment, or training within five years. Former minister Alan Milburn, the author, declared that the education, health, and welfare systems are "no longer fit for purpose" in preparing young people for adult life - a diagnosis that probably won't shock anyone who's tried to navigate them lately.
Milburn warned of a "lost generation," with the number of 16 to 24-year-olds out of work, education, or training set to rise to 1.25 million by 2031. Currently, 957,000 young people are classified as Neet (Not in Employment, Education, or Training) - about one in eight - and more than half aren't even looking for work. The unemployment rate for 16 to 24-year-olds stands at 16.2%, the highest since 2014, and more than three times the broader unemployment rate of 5%.
"The first rung of the career ladder has thinned," Milburn is expected to say in a speech, adding that for "too many young people it is now simply out of reach." He'll describe a "hopeless catch-22 where employers ask for work experience but the opportunities for young people to gain it have narrowed or gone." The review found that the number of low-and medium-skilled jobs in the UK has fallen by 1.6 million in the past 20 years, while higher-skilled positions have risen by 6.3 million - not great news if you're trying to get a foot in the door.
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden, who commissioned the report, said it aims to save a generation from unemployment and welcomed the findings. "We are already taking action," he said, pointing to government plans to pay companies to hire young people and create more apprenticeships, plus "early intervention" measures like special educational needs support and removing the two-child cap on benefits. "But we know there is more to do," he added.
The report found that the government spends 25 times as much on benefits for young people as on supporting them into work. However, Milburn challenged the narrative that young people don't want to work: 84% of Neets surveyed said they want a job or training. "This is not a failure of young people. It is a failure of a system stuck in the past," he will say.
Zaynah, 24, has applied for more than 200 jobs since leaving college but never heard back. "Getting a job is very hard because with my issues, I haven't got that much experience, I've never worked before," she said. Luke, 23, a product design graduate from Central St Martin's University, has applied for 400 positions and only got one interview - for a cleaner job he didn't get. "It's humiliating," he said. "You think 'okay I've got all the knowledge, I've got all the skills, all I'm waiting for is a job to put it in practice.'"
But there is a glimmer of hope: Rocky, 23, was out of work for a year before joining Nando's as a waiter and is now an assistant manager. "I'm 23 years old and I'm a manager at Nando's," he said. "I feel happy with myself. I can look back and tell my doubters that I made it."
The report doesn't include solutions yet - those will come in a final report later. The Conservative Party said Labour is too focused on internal leadership speculation to deal with the crisis. Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately said: "Every policy choice Labour has made, from their jobs tax, capping apprenticeship funding, or trapping young people on welfare, has made it harder for a young person to take their first step into work."