About a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) used to squeeze through the Strait of Hormuz, a 30-mile-wide strip of sea that recently became a no-go zone thanks to a US-Israeli attack on Iran. The resulting oil price spike and the estimated 20,000 seafarers stranded on 2,000 vessels have cast an unflattering light on shipping's cozy, codependent relationship with fossil fuels. The sector churns out about 3% of global greenhouse gases, burning what can only be described as the fuel equivalent of leftover scraps - heavy, carbon-intensive diesel too filthy for anything else. And as trade globalizes, that share is only set to rise.
But the entanglement doesn't end with the fuel in the tank. "About 40% of the global fleet is used to transport fossil fuels," says Marie Fricaudet of University College London's Energy Institute, noting that this is a trade that must be phased out to avoid the worst of climate change. At the International Maritime Organization (IMO) headquarters in London, two weeks of talks on decarbonizing shipping are underway, and insiders report that many countries have been hit with a pro-oil lobbying blitz. Liberia, Panama, and Greece, for instance, have seemingly flip-flopped from supporting strict emission controls to trying to scrap new regulations entirely.
LNG, whose trade has been badly disrupted by the Hormuz closure, is a particularly expensive fuel to move - it requires specially cooled containers and some of the priciest vessels afloat. Companies and countries have sunk huge investments into it, partly as a response to the 2022 oil crisis sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But repeated oil crises have nudged many toward renewables as a more sensible long-term bet. "Among the vessels most exposed to this transition, LNG tankers stand out," Fricaudet warns, noting they face oversupply under most 1.5°C and 2°C climate scenarios.
Tristan Smith, a UCL professor, points to the influence of LNG interests on the IMO's negotiations. Several countries with strong LNG ties - chief among them the US, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar - disrupted talks last year, joined by Liberia and the Marshall Islands, whose flag registries are "strongly correlated with LNG exposure." The LNG industry shows no sign of slowing: there are just over 750 vessels delivering LNG globally, with 337 new ones on order. Ella Minty of the International Gas Union insists LNG "will remain a critical fuel," but the IMO talks have been dragging on for over a decade.
Last April, a breakthrough saw countries agree to a "net zero framework" and a carbon levy on shipping, which would fund greener fleets and help developing countries hit by extreme weather. But then the US, under Donald Trump's climate-rejecting regime, started intimidating countries into changing their minds. By October, the levy was put on ice for a year. No decision is expected until October 2025. The International Chamber of Shipping claims the industry supports decarbonization and is moving "at speed," but civil society observers note many countries are holding firm. Delaine McCullough of the Clean Shipping Coalition urges member states to "hold the line against those looking to once again disrupt and delay."
Experts argue the transition need not be commercial suicide. Christiaan De Beukelaer of the University of Melbourne points out that coal cargoes can be replaced with grain, and liquids with alternatives. As the global economy decarbonizes, demand for solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries will surge - and those will need shipping too, just not through the Strait of Hormuz.