Kenya's beloved milky tea, or chai, is facing a crisis as a milk shortage grips the nation, leaving breakfast tables incomplete and tempers flaring. The essential brew, made by boiling tea in generous amounts of milk and often flavored with ginger and spices, is a staple at meetings, social visits, and multiple times daily for many. But now, supermarket chilled sections are nearly empty, prices have jumped, and retailers are rationing purchases.

The government blames drought for reducing pasture and hampering production, but the Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) has admitted to "supply constraints" and "low stock levels" nationwide. Muthoni Macharia, a Nairobi restaurant owner who usually buys over 70 packets of fresh milk, is desperate and puzzled: "Where has the milk gone?" She's been scouring the city for just a few packets to serve her morning rush, noting that regulars are unhappy - some will take black tea, but many won't. "If they come in groups, and there's no milk tea, you see that's a loss for me," she said.

Kenya is a leading milk producer in Africa, with a commercial dairy industry making pasteurized milk popular, especially in urban areas. Kenyans rank among Africa's highest consumers. The shortage has sparked conspiracy theories about supermarkets profiteering, but the reality is more mundane: formal milk deliveries to processors fell 3.7% from 84.4 million litres in June to 81.3 million litres in July, with further declines in August, according to KDB.

The Consumer Federation of Kenya (Cofek) attributes the trend to delayed seasonal rains, reduced grazing, and a 45% rise in animal feed costs. Fresh milk prices have risen from 70 to 80 Kenyan shillings ($0.54 to $0.62; £0.40 to £0.46) per litre. Cofek calls the shortage "foreseeable, and in material part, avoidable," criticizing state-owned processor New KCC and KDB for not adequately absorbing last year's surplus. Converting excess milk to powder would have helped, as processors often reconvert it to liquid during dry seasons. "Had these buffers been in place, today's supply shock would have been substantially cushioned," Cofek says, demanding a recovery plan with fodder and subsidy support, tax waivers on feed inputs, and "active retail price monitoring to deter opportunity price gouging and rationing."

KDB managing director William Maritim assured that despite the "temporary supply constraint," milk is still available, though fresh pasteurized milk is more affected than UHT. Nairobi shoppers like Bernard Abok lament fluctuating prices: "Sometimes when I go to the supermarket I find there is none. When I do find some, the price has gone up." Patricia Gathoni has resorted to watering down milk for her children.

Agriculture ministry officials met with dairy processors on Thursday, committing to support farmers and stabilize supply. Livestock development chief Jonathan Mueke said immediate focus is on getting feed, including duty-free yellow maize imports, and longer-term solutions for surplus and shortage periods. The government is considering a fund to preserve milk during gluts and may temporarily import milk from neighboring countries.

For devoted chai lovers, that might offer some respite - though they may need to acquire a taste for foreign milk, which is a bit like asking for tea without the 'chai'.