The federal budget is about to throw another $3.8 billion at Melbourne's Suburban Rail Loop, a 90km public transport project that has become as famous for its price tag as its promised ability to get you from Cheltenham to Werribee without ever seeing the sky.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will announce the fresh funding alongside Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan on Friday, ahead of the 12 May budget. The timing is impeccable, coinciding with early campaigning for the state election - because nothing says 'we care about infrastructure' like a cash injection during election season.
State opposition leader Jess Wilson has promised to hit pause on construction if the Coalition wins in November, after years of eyebrow-raising over this massive underground rail project that's supposed to run 90km between Cheltenham in the south-east and Werribee in the south-west, with a pit stop at Melbourne airport.
The new funding, spread over the four-year forward estimates, brings the total federal contribution to over $6 billion. That's right: after months of negotiations, Canberra has agreed to chip in enough money to make even Scrooge McDuck nervous.
State government sources hinted that a 'live option' was a commitment of $9.3 billion over a decade, so consider this the appetiser. State Labor has already committed about $11.8 billion for the first stage, SRL East - a 26km stretch of tunnels between Cheltenham and Box Hill - and has signed $13 billion worth of construction contracts, including two tunnelling deals worth $5.3 billion and $6.7 billion with a John Holland-led consortium called TransitLinX. Two more contract packages are due in 2026 and 2027, because why stop now?
First promised by Daniel Andrews before the 2018 election, the Suburban Rail Loop was upgraded to a priority project by Infrastructure Australia. It has been the subject of repeated criticism since, including over its origins, the veracity of its business case, and the total cost - which some have compared to the GDP of a small nation.
Albanese called the project 'a gamechanger' for Melbourne and Victoria, saying it would help people get across suburbs without having to go into the CBD and back out. 'It helps speed up travel times, get cars off the road and increases opportunities for businesses,' he said, presumably not while looking at the bill.
The 2021 business case for SRL East and SRL North estimated the eastern section would cost up to $34.5 billion and be completed by 2035, with about 71,000 daily passenger trips forecast. The business case conveniently avoided the final stage between Melbourne Airport and Werribee.
An analysis by Victoria's independent parliamentary budget office in 2022 estimated the cost of constructing the first two stages would hit $125 billion by 2084-85. That's right: the project might outlast us all.
A 2023 ombudsman report revealed the project was the brainchild of a former ministerial staffer who worked on its early stages 'in secret' with a small team of external consultants, sidelining transport department experts. So it's a secret rail loop - how very James Bond.
The project has helped Labor politically in Melbourne's eastern electorates, but some state Labor MPs are worried about the massive cost and the decision to leave construction in the western suburbs - home to safe Labor seats but less transport infrastructure - to later decades.
The federal opposition accused Labor of axing the beleaguered inland rail project to redirect funds to Suburban Rail, just in time for the November election. The Coalition went to the 2018 and 2022 state elections vowing to scrap the loop entirely, so it's safe to say this project has become a political football that costs more than the Super Bowl.