Australian alpine resorts were positively giddy this week, flooding social media with footage of snow flurries arriving just in time for the ski season opening. Perisher, the southern hemisphere’s biggest ski resort in Kosciuszko National Park, New South Wales, couldn’t contain its excitement as hands swept fresh snow from outdoor tables.
But while those wintry scenes are spectacular, the outlook for the rest of winter - and the coming decades - is less Instagram-friendly. With an El Niño likely forming in the coming weeks, the odds are stacked in favour of drier and warmer conditions through winter and spring. “Overall with that dry and warm outlook and the El Niño, it does not favour good deep snow cover for skiers,” said Jonathan How, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology. “It tips the odds against a good season because of the less rainfall and high temperatures. That’s a bad combination.”
The Bureau’s long-range forecast suggests below-average snowfall for Australia’s alpine regions (except possibly Mount Mawson in Tasmania), with both maximum and minimum temperatures expected above average. But How notes that long-range forecasts can’t predict daily weather: “We will still get those low pressure systems and we will see winter systems move through.” Snow was falling this week ahead of Saturday’s opening, but next week’s daytime temperatures could hit 10°C, meaning “the snow might not stick around very long.”
For decades, climate scientists have predicted Australia’s alpine areas will get warmer, making the future challenging for ski resorts. Observations already show snow depths falling. Two years ago, scientists at the Australian National University and University of Innsbruck used a new climate model - SkiSim2 - to see what greenhouse gas emissions could do to 11 of Australia’s main ski resorts. “The model showed us that the average resort season length would drop by between 15% and 17% by 2030,” said Ruby Olsson, an ANU researcher studying climate effects on Australia’s Alps.
Resorts have long used snow-making technology to supplement nature, but Olsson said the warmer it gets, the harder adaptation becomes. “There is a really stark difference between the emissions scenarios. The more we can reduce our emissions, the cheaper and more effective our adaptation will be.”
Dr Andrew Watkins, a research associate at Monash University and former head of climate prediction at the bureau, has skied Victoria’s Mount Hotham since the mid-1990s and already has his season pass. Back in the 90s, “we would not get out of bed for less than a metre of snow,” but those are now considered good conditions. “What’s changing is we’re getting fewer of those regular top-up snowfalls and more falling in bigger dumps,” he said. “Climate change loads the dice for less snowfall and El Niño loads the dice for a shorter season.” The one silver lining: drier air and cooler nights from El Niño “is good for snow-making.”
Professional freestyle skier Mia “Miff” Rennie, 22, is excited to be back after a year off following her third major knee surgery. But in only 10 years, she says she has seen a “drastic” drop in snowfall and season length. “It’s deeply concerning. It’s black and white for me. We need to be putting a stop to fossil fuels and use renewables to have these winters and these seasons.” Still, she can’t hide her excitement: “I’m there if there’s snow on the ground and I hope everyone can get out there and experience that winter magic. Hopefully the season works out better than they think.”
Josh Elliott, CEO of Snow Resorts Australia, noted that alpine conditions “have always been variable” and resorts are used to planning for a wide range of weather. Snowmaking has been part of the industry for over 35 years, and some resorts have invested in “next-generation all-weather snowmaking systems, which can produce snow at temperatures of up to 20°C above zero.” He added: “No industry can predict exactly what conditions will look like decades into the future. The key question is whether it continues to adapt and evolve.”