If at first you don't succeed at quitting smoking, try switching to the black market - it's cheaper, and apparently, everyone's doing it. New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals that Australians are consuming 40% more nicotine in 2025 than they were in 2017, despite the population only growing by a modest 14%. The culprit? A staggering explosion in illegal tobacco, which now accounts for 80% of all cigarettes smoked in the country, up from just 12% in 2017.

This surge in illicit puffing has actually driven down household spending on cigarettes to levels not seen since 2016, because while legal cigarette taxes have tripled in cost, the shadowy folks selling bootleg smokes have kept prices remarkably stable. The ABS, in its first-ever attempt to quantify the illegal tobacco trade, relied on wastewater samples to detect nicotine metabolites - because nothing says 'national economic indicator' quite like testing what's flushed down the toilet.

New South Wales Health Minister Ryan Park called the data 'unsurprising,' blaming the federal government's tobacco excise for creating a 'growing disparity' that makes illicit tobacco irresistible during a cost-of-living crisis. 'This public health failure has seen states and territories have to dedicate further resources in licensing, enforcement, and in dealing with the healthcare challenges that result from it,' he said, in what sounds like a polite way of saying 'we told you so.'

Last year, the government lost $6.9 billion in tax revenue as legal tobacco sales tanked, sparking a debate among experts about whether to lower the excise (to reduce criminal incentive) or keep it high (and hope enforcement catches up). NSW Premier Chris Minns has called for an overhaul, declaring the current system isn't working 'as a matter of tax or health policy.' In the meantime, states are getting creative: NSW now fines landlords of shops selling illegal tobacco, and Victoria has introduced penalties of up to $370,000 or 15 years in jail for selling illicit smokes. Because nothing says 'healthy lifestyle' quite like treating cigarettes like a major drug bust.