A new UN report has confirmed what many people whispering over expensive baby formula already know: globally, most people want two or more children, but many are having only one, or none at all. The latest State of World Population report from the UN sexual and reproductive rights agency (UNFPA) reveals that around one in five adults worldwide believe they won't be able to have the number of children they want, largely due to economic insecurity, inequality, and a lack of support.
Michael Herrmann, an economist and demographer with UNFPA, is urging everyone to take a deep breath. Speaking on the sidelines of the Commission on Population and Development meeting at UN Headquarters in New York, he cautions that panic is unwarranted. "Demographic change is not a crisis in itself," he says, advocating instead for a concept gaining attention: demographic resilience. This means helping societies anticipate population change, adapt their institutions, and make better use of human potential, an approach applicable to both developing and wealthy countries.
The report outlines different demographic phases. Some countries experience a "demographic dividend" where a growing working-age population boosts economic growth. Others, further along, can benefit from a "second dividend" by investing in education, health, skills, and technology to raise productivity. One of the most visible effects of ageing populations is a shrinking workforce, to which many governments have responded by simply raising retirement ages. Herrmann calls this a "too blunt an instrument," as it ignores the different capacities, preferences, and life circumstances of older adults.
As birth rates fall, some governments react with cash bonuses, tax breaks, or even official fertility targets. The evidence suggests these measures have limited and short-lived impact. "One-off payments don't change long-term decisions," says Herrmann. At best, they may influence when people have children, not whether they do. UNFPA's new Youth Reproductive Choices Survey, underway in 70 countries, takes a different approach by asking people directly why they are having fewer children than they want.
Early survey results highlight a potent mix of economic and social pressures. High housing and childcare costs, insecure employment, and worries about the future - from political instability to climate change - all weigh heavily. So do unequal gender roles, with women often bearing most unpaid care and domestic work burdens. "These are not issues that can be solved with a cheque," Herrmann notes, adding that policies driven by fear of population decline can also undermine rights, particularly for women, by promoting harmful assumptions.
A rights-based approach, Herrmann argues, starts from a different question: what prevents people from having the children they want? From there, governments can identify practical solutions like affordable housing, accessible childcare, parental leave for both parents, stable jobs, and equal pay. Such policies support families without coercion. While ageing populations do pose real challenges for pension systems and health, they do not automatically spell economic decline. Spending on health and long-term care also creates jobs, particularly in services rooted in local communities, and older people contribute in many ways beyond paid work.