Britain's housing market is not expected to recover until 2028, according to property firm Savills, which has apparently decided that the best way to deliver bad news is with a calendar and a shrug. Higher mortgage rates linked to the war in the Middle East are deterring buyers and weighing on prices, meaning the dream of owning a home remains on hold for anyone who enjoys eating.

Savills said average house prices were expected to drift lower during the rest of 2026 and fall by 1.5% in 2027, as the prolonged conflict undermines buyers' confidence and keeps mortgage rates higher for longer. "Drift lower" is estate agent speak for "your house is worth less, but we'll still charge commission."

Improving economic prospects and mortgage affordability are expected to support a recovery from 2028, which is conveniently far enough away that no one can be held accountable if it doesn't happen.

Savills expects house prices to rise by 15.8% - or £56,500 on average - over the five years to 2031, with values starting to recover in the second half of 2028. That's a comforting number for anyone who can afford to wait five years and doesn't need to sell in the meantime.

Nationwide said last week that UK house prices had risen by an annual rate of just 0.5% in October, the slowest pace in more than two years. The average price for a property in the UK stood at £273,566, the lender said. That's roughly the cost of a small flat in a city where the buses don't run on Sundays.

The Bank of England is widely expected to increase interest rates from 3.75% to 4% on Thursday, putting further pressure on mortgage rates, after UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September. Because nothing says "economic stability" like raising rates while inflation is already climbing.

More than 2.3m UK households face a sharp rise in mortgage payments as they come off fixed-rate deals in 2027. So if you're one of them, perhaps start practising your "I'm fine" face now.

Emily Williams, the director of residential research at Savills, said: "The drawn-out conflict in the Middle East has pushed back the prospect of meaningful mortgage rate relief, which will weigh on buyer sentiment and affordability. We expect this will suppress activity and put pressure on prices next year. But this is unlikely to trigger a sharper correction. Most homeowners have already absorbed higher borrowing costs since late 2022, with relatively few still needing to refinance directly from rates below 2%, and the labour market remains resilient."

The strongest five-year house price growth in percentage terms is forecast across northern England, Wales and Scotland, supported by relative affordability and economic prospects, according to the prediction. So if you're looking for a silver lining, it's apparently in a postcode where you can still buy a house for less than a London parking space.

Savills expects first-time buyers to lead the recovery from 2028, helped by deposit affordability and government initiatives, which include the Your First Home scheme. It expects house price growth to accelerate in the second half of 2028, reaching 3.5% for the year as a whole. Mark your calendars, set a reminder, and maybe start saving now - you've got two years to scrape together a deposit.