Four years after the Calf Canyon/Hermits Peak Fire torched 341,471 acres in northern New Mexico - making it the most destructive blaze in state history - the burn scar remains a bleak tableau of leafless, barren, charred trees. It's just one of many such landscapes: the New Mexico Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department (EMNRD) reports that wildland fires have burned more than 5.45 million acres across the state over the past 20 years.
New Mexico is trying to reforest these lands, but the sheer number of seedlings needed and the brutal conditions on burn scars - including ground temperatures that can hit 150 degrees - make it a tough slog. Enter the New Mexico Reforestation Center, which broke ground on April 27 in Mora County and is slated to eventually produce 5 million seedlings per year, including ponderosa pine and Douglas fir. But those tiny trees won't stand a chance unless they're hardened against the sun and ever-drier conditions wrought by climate change.
That's why researchers from EMNRD, New Mexico Highlands University, New Mexico State University, and the University of New Mexico are collaborating on a so-called “reforestation pipeline” - an interagency approach that tackles every step from seed to tree, aiming to create more climate-resilient seedlings. “The integrated reforestation pipeline model is one of the things that differentiates New Mexico’s reforestation efforts from other states,” said Jenn Auchter, director of the New Mexico Reforestation Center.
Previously, New Mexico bought seedlings from a company in Idaho, but the long-distance travel turned out to be yet another stressor that reduced survival rates. “So yes, we’re planting, but are we actually reforesting?” Auchter asked. Now the state produces its own seedlings - about 300,000 each year - at New Mexico State University’s John T. Harrington Forestry Research Center in Mora. The new reforestation center, on the same campus, aims to produce 1 million seedlings for reforestation by fall 2028 and 5 million annually after that.
Before a seedling can be a seedling, you need seeds. Researchers from New Mexico Highlands University start scouting for mature pine cones in forests across the state each spring, looking for what they call the “best trees on the worst site” - seeds from trees that have already survived drought, wildfire, or temperature extremes. Contractors bag the cones, which are dried and separated at a seed shop. In 2024, they collected 12 million seeds. Germination testing follows, and samples go to the US Forest Service National Seed Laboratory for genetic identity and quality certification. Eventually, seeds from that spring's harvest reach the Harrington Center.
That's where Andrei Toca, a research scientist at the center, toughens seedlings up for the extreme conditions they'll face - particularly drought and heat. Ground temperatures on burn scars can reach 150 degrees, Toca noted. Not only do seedlings get blasted by sun due to lack of shade, but the dark, charred surface absorbs more solar radiation than lighter or plant-covered terrain. Meanwhile, about 94 percent of the state was experiencing drought conditions as of May 12, and drier winters rob seedlings of insulating snow.
Toca and his team expose seedlings to controlled drought, which spurs them to grow larger root systems and produce fewer needles - reducing water loss. They also strategically warm the nursery. “Generally, nurseries grow seedlings under optimal conditions where they would grow just like in your garden, like very nice, very lush, green and large seedlings,” Toca said. “Well, that’s not ideal necessarily for the burn scars. What we are trying to do is introduce those seedlings to the very stress factors that they will face later on.”
The next part of the pipeline focuses on where to plant seedlings once they're ready. Matt Hurteau, a professor at the University of New Mexico and director of the Center for Fire Resilient Ecosystems and Society, leads this effort. “Plant and seedling survival in these wildfire footprints across the Southwest has averaged about 25 percent,” he said. “What we’ve been doing is a years-long campaign to try and figure out how to improve those numbers.”
In 2016, Hurteau planted ponderosa pines and other species under various conditions in the footprint of the 2011 Las Conchas fire in the Jemez Mountains. He built a model that predicts seedling survival based on factors like solar radiation, slope steepness, direction, and position on the slope. The model can predict survival with about 63 percent accuracy. Maps for the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon Fire footprint have been produced for land managers. So far, the model only works for ponderosa pine, but Hurteau says it could be adapted for other species.
His research shows that ponderosa pine seedlings fare worst on south, southeast, southwest, and west-facing slopes at middle or lower elevations because they get too much solar radiation. “They’re much hotter and drier than, say, slopes that are northwest to northeast, maybe even east facing,” Hurteau said. Areas that accumulate water see higher survival rates.
Since the first experiment, Hurteau and his team have planted another 10,000 seedlings in the burn scars of the 2011 Las Conchas Fire and the 2020 Luna Fire footprint northwest of Mora, as well as at the Philmont Scout Ranch near the Colorado border, where a fire burned in 2018.
But the trees that once grew in fire-affected landscapes might not be the best to replant. Hurteau thinks scientists may need to consider integrating drought- and fire-tolerant species found further south into more northern areas. For instance, the Chihuahuan pine, which grows in southern New Mexico and southern Arizona, might thrive further north. “That species has got different adaptations to fire and different adaptations to drought and could be a good candidate for establishing in these landscapes that are likely to burn with more frequency in the future and are going to become hotter and drier,” Hurteau said.
Advocates say these efforts come at a crucial time. “Over the last 15 years, we’ve seen fires get larger, burn larger areas, burn at higher intensities, and do a lot more damage in terms of the threats to downstream communities from post-fire flooding or from loss of water supplies when reservoirs are choked with post-fire sediment,” said Steve Bassett, director of conservation programs for The Nature Conservancy in New Mexico, which partners with more than 100 organizations through its Rio Grande Water Fund.
After the Calf Canyon/Hermits Peak Fire, residents of nearby Las Vegas, New Mexico, had their water shut off when the blaze contaminated the city's only supply with ash and debris. Restaurants and hotels closed. “It had a terrible effect on the local community,” Bassett said. Burn scars are more prone to flash flooding. “The clock is ticking,” he added. “Every year that passes, we’re setting our forests back by not being able to seize the moment.” He noted the reforestation center will take time to reach full capacity, “but the sooner we can get there, the better. We have a huge backlog from the 7 million acres of [forests] that have already burned, and we know that’s not going to stop.”