Everyone is strapped into their cars, ready to go. It’s the tensest of times - which, in Monaco, is saying something, given the track is basically a giant game of bumper cars with better champagne.
David Croft reminds us that the man on pole has won 33 out of 71 races, and not since David Coulthard overtook Juan Pablo Montoya in 2002 has the pole sitter not led at the end of lap 1. So if you’re not first after the first corner, you might as well start planning your post-race yacht party.
Monaco is made for montages. Sky Sports is enjoying itself thoroughly, showing victors diving into swimming pools and spraying champagne everywhere - because nothing says “elite motorsport” like chlorinated water and expensive bubbly.
Jenson Button speculates that any of the top seven could take pole. Bernie Collins, before plumping for Max Verstappen, notes: “It’s all about qualifying.” Groundbreaking analysis, but we’ll allow it.
What of George Russell, the pre-season favourite? He trailed his Mercedes teammate Kimi Antonelli by 0.763 seconds this morning and by almost half a second in FP1, going narrowly faster in FP2. The 28-year-old, who devoted the off-season to breaking mirrors and walking under ladders, must hope for a change of luck after his tussle with Antonelli in Montreal ended in engine failure while he held the lead. That leaves Antonelli with a 43-point lead in the title race. With 10 minutes to go, here’s a reminder of the standings:
1. Kimi Antonelli (IT) Mercedes 131pts
2. George Russell (GB) Mercedes 88pts
3. Charles Leclerc (Mon) Ferrari 75pts
4. Lewis Hamilton (GB) Ferrari 72pts
5. Lando Norris (GB) McLaren 58pts
6. Oscar Piastri (Aus) McLaren 48pts
7. Max Verstappen (Neth) Red Bull 43pts
8. Pierre Gasly (Fr) Alpine 20pts
9. Oliver Bearman (GB) Haas 18pts
10. Liam Lawson (NZ) Racing Bulls 16pts
11. Franco Colapinto (Arg) Alpine 15pts
12. Isack Hadjar (Fr) Red Bull 14pts
12. Carlos Sainz (Sp) Williams 6pts
14. Arvid Lindblad (GB) Racing Bulls 5pts
15. Gabriel Bortoleto (Br) Audi 2pts
16. Esteban Ocon (Fr) Haas 1pt
17. Alexander Albon (Tha) Williams 1pt
Constructors’ standings: 1. Mercedes 219pts, 2. Ferrari 147pts, 3. McLaren 106pts, 4. Red Bull 57pts, 5. Alpine 35pts, 6. Racing Bulls 21pts, 7. Haas 19pts, 8. Williams 7pts, 9. Audi 2pts, 10. Aston Martin 0pts, 11. Cadillac 0pts.
Is there a better name for a nationality than Monegasque? Will the highlight of this weekend be typing “Monegasque” and “idiosyncrasies” correctly on the first try? These are the questions that keep us up at night.
Leclerc is talking to Martin Brundle about his earliest F1 memory: Michael Schumacher in 2001, “and the red car won.” The German, of course, was in the Ferrari. The Monegasque has the boost of a new contract going into the race. Will he get a win to celebrate? He’s certainly hoping the narrow streets and new regulations play to his strengths.
The narrow streets of the principality have always made overtaking difficult, but there have even been suggestions that the new regime may give Monaco a helping hand. This week, Leclerc told roadandtrack.com: “I think Monaco is actually going to be one of those races where these cars might be very good.” Isack Hadjar agreed: “Smaller cars, lighter - I think it should be more fun than last season.” The 2026 vehicles are 10cm narrower than 2025’s. Progress!
Still, qualifying is likely to be absolutely vital. Lando Norris has been telling Sky about taking pole last year and the amazing feeling of driving here. “The thing is in Monaco what makes it insane is you have to rely more than ever on your subconscious … you see the slowmos where we’re hitting the wall by just that little bit. A little bit more and you are off and you are in the wall and you are out. And those are the moments where you almost briefly shut your eyes.” We’re not sure that’s how racing works, but we’ll take his word for it.
Sadly, it is to be Ferrari’s day, but their team principal, Fred Vasseur, will not be there to see it. The Associated Press reports that he is “under observation at a local medical facility” and will not be at the track for Monaco Grand Prix qualifying on Saturday. Ferrari did not specify details of the 58-year-old French racing executive’s condition, saying only: “Fred Vasseur will not be present at the circuit today. Following some medical checks, Fred will remain under observation at a local medical facility. No further medical information will be provided. We wish Fred a speedy recovery and look forward to seeing him back at the track soon.” Vasseur has led Ferrari’s F1 team since 2023 and was handed a multi-year contract extension last year.
Vasseur had been trying to play down his team’s prospects, telling Formula1.com on Friday: “I don’t care about this kind of approach or rumours. We have to do the job. It’s a very long way in Monaco from Friday, first to the quali, then to the race. The most difficult [thing] is that you have to anticipate the evolution of the track, the evolution of the grip, and you have to be always one session ahead. This is a real challenge for the team and for the drivers.”
And while the Ferraris did top Friday’s practice times - Leclerc fastest in the first session, Hamilton in the second - Antonelli went quickest on Saturday morning. So much for predictions.
Gambling is a mug’s game, but betting odds can be informative. Looking at one bookie on Friday night, at 1-2, Kimi Antonelli was not yet a prohibitive favourite to win the drivers’ championship, but George Russell was next best at 9-4, with Lando Norris 14-1 to retain his title, and Charles Leclerc 20-1. However, narrow the focus to this weekend’s party by the Med, and it was Antonelli who was 14-1, with Leclerc 5-6 favourite. Nothing you are about to see is likely to tell you anything about what is going to happen across the rest of the season, unless Antonelli overturns those Monaco Grand Prix odds.
All F1 circuits are different, despite the off-the-shelf feel in the Middle East, but Monaco is the outlier’s outlier. The street circuits generally have more idiosyncrasies than those F1 tracks simply going about their day jobs, but the twists and slopes of the principality are unlike anything else. It’s as if one of the major cricket venues did not just have one tree in the middle of it, in the manner of Canterbury and its lime (RIP), but an avenue here and a copse (from Silverstone?) there.
As a result, a lot of the issues over this season’s cars can be parked for a week. No one will be complaining about being unable to drive flat-out, as the necessary braking will deliver all the electrical recharge needed, and the straights are far shorter than elsewhere. This plays to Ferrari’s strengths and negates Mercedes’s - hence those odds on the local lad.
Plenty of sportspeople move to Monte Carlo for tax reasons and the climate, but Leclerc is a born-and-bred Monegasque. The 28-year-old - whose late father drove in the French Formule 3 - grew up on these streets, watching grands prix. Aged eight and nine, he would have seen Fernando Alonso win, and as a 10-year-old, Lewis Hamilton. In 2024, Leclerc became the first hometown GP winner in Monte Carlo since Louis Chiron in 1931. It is unlikely to be Ferrari’s or Leclerc’s year, but this could be their weekend. Qualifying for Sunday’s race gets under way at 3pm BST; join us for more buildup from 2.30pm.