Intel's stock had what can only be described as a very bad Friday, plummeting around 28% - one of its worst trading days ever - after the chipmaker delivered a fourth-quarter outlook that landed somewhere between "disappointing" and "please stop calling." The crash vaporized $12 billion from the value of the U.S. government's stake in the company, CNBC reported, because nothing says "strategic investment" quite like watching it evaporate in an afternoon.

The Trump administration had the government buy a 10% stake in Intel over a year ago. Nvidia, which also took a big stake in Intel in 2025, saw its stock dip on Friday too, as much of the tech industry - chipmakers especially - got caught in the selloff. So the pain was at least democratic.

Before anyone lights a candle for Uncle Sam, Intel stock is still a profitable investment for the government so far (and for Nvidia): it's up more than 70% for the year, even if it has fallen considerably from the sky-high prices it commanded over the summer. The federal portfolio, it turns out, is just as volatile as your cousin's Robinhood account.

The selloff was triggered when Intel warned investors to expect fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, while analysts were looking for around $17 billion. The company also said its gross profit margin would decline to 37% from 43%, and that it was investing so heavily it expected no positive cash flow. In corporate-speak, that's known as "confidence in the future." In investor-speak, it's known as "sell."

The core problem: PC sales are being squeezed by the AI industry, which is gobbling up memory and other components and driving PC prices upward. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan laid it out on the earnings call: "Our customers began signaling a PC slowdown based on the memory prices and availability. Year-to-date system endpoint prices have increased significantly, placing additional pressure on already limited IT budgets." Translation: AI is eating the PCs, or at least their component supply.

The bright side is that revenue from Intel's data center business grew 78% over the year-ago quarter. But Intel is hamstrung on that front until it can bring more capacity to its fabs and book more external customers for them, all while competing with powerhouse Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. One of Intel's new fabs in Arizona is operational, but the next one isn't expected to be online until 2028 - a timeline that, in semiconductor years, is roughly a geologic epoch.