In a stunning display of political whiplash, the UK government has reversed its early prison release scheme after Andy Burnham, the Prime Minister, apparently discovered that people really don't like the idea of murderers and rapists walking free. The decision, announced after weeks of intense pressure, means that offenders guilty of manslaughter, rape, child sexual abuse, and grooming will now serve their full sentences, much to the relief of everyone except the prison system itself.

Burnham, in a moment of clarity, said he understood "how strongly people feel about this issue," which is a bit like a captain saying he understands the ship is sinking after the iceberg has already been hit. The U-turn affects about 1,400 prisoners who were slated for early release, and it was welcomed by police, victims' groups, and families, including Debbie Adlam, the mother of PC Andrew Harper, who was killed in the line of duty in August 2019.

Harper, 28, died after being dragged along a road while responding to a quad bike theft in Sulhamstead, Berkshire. Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers, both 17 at the time, were sentenced to 13 years for manslaughter. Adlam expressed a "mixed bag of emotions," noting that the family had been "put through the mill" and were "just literally fighting to get back to where we were." Thames Valley Police Chief Constable Jason Hogg said the news was "not about politics" but about remembering Andrew, which is a nice sentiment, though it's hard to imagine anything more political than changing the law to keep killers in prison.

The problem, as critics have pointed out, is that prisons in England and Wales are operating at 98% capacity, and the previous plan was to free up space by deporting foreign prisoners and releasing inmates on indefinite sentences (IPPs). But Burnham admitted the number of deportable prisoners was only in the "hundreds," and prison experts say releasing IPP inmates will be complicated and slow. The Howard League's Andrea Coomber warned that the prison estate is now "one major incident away from a disaster," adding that "all it will take is something like a serious riot or public disturbance and any capacity will be gone."

The U-turn also undermines the Sentencing Act changes based on a review by former justice secretary David Gauke, which were designed to improve rehabilitation and free up spaces. Prison Reform Trust chief executive Pia Sinha noted that the government should address the 18% of prisoners on remand awaiting trial, saying "if prisons are full they become warehouses - you can't deliver interventions, self-harm goes up and rehabilitation goes down." The shadow justice secretary, Nick Timothy, accused Labour of avoiding parliamentary scrutiny and called for emergency legislation to exclude the worst offenders properly.

In the end, Burnham said he wanted to go even further but had "pushed the system to the very limits of what's possible without risking the prison system collapsing within months, putting the public at enormous risk." So, we've traded one crisis for another, but at least some killers will stay behind bars. Progress?