The global supply of fertiliser - and by extension, the planet's ability to feed itself - is taking a beating thanks to the war in Iran, and the boss of one of the world's largest fertiliser producers has some sobering math for us. Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara, told the BBC that hostilities in the Gulf, particularly the blockage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, are threatening to wipe out up to ten billion meals per week. That's a lot of missed lunch breaks.
Holsether explained that reduced crop yields from lower fertiliser use could trigger a bidding war for food, with richer nations likely winning while poorer ones go hungry. He urged European nations to think twice before engaging in a price war that would hit the "most vulnerable" hardest. "We're up to half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser not being produced in the world right now because of the situation we are in," Holsether said. "What does that mean for food production? I would get to up to 10 billion meals that will not be produced every week as a result of the lack of fertilisers."
Not applying nitrogen fertiliser, he noted, could slash crop yields by as much as 50% in the first season. Farmers, meanwhile, are caught in a classic squeeze: higher costs for everything from diesel to fertiliser, while the prices they get for their crops haven't caught up. "They're faced with higher energy costs, diesel for a tractor is increasing, other inputs for the farmers are increasing, fertiliser cost is increasing, but yet the crop prices haven't increased to the same extent yet," Holsether added.
Fertiliser prices have already jumped 80% since the start of the US and Israel's war on Iran, and a prolonged conflict could lead to a grim global food auction. "If there's a bidding war on food and one that Europe is robust enough to handle, what we need to keep in mind in Europe is, okay, in that situation, who are we buying the food away from?" Holsether asked. "That is a situation where the most vulnerable people pay the highest price for this in developing nations where they cannot afford to follow that."
While the UK is unlikely to face actual shortages, the rising costs for food producers are expected to hit weekly grocery bills in the coming months. The Food and Drink Federation recently predicted food inflation could reach 10% by year's end - which is, at least, one number that doesn't require a fertiliser executive to explain.