Sixteen years ago, Abdi Nor Iftin was a Somali refugee living in one of the roughest slums in Kenya when he found out he had won the lottery of a lifetime. Out of nearly eight million applicants in 2013, he had been one of the lucky 50,000 granted a US visa through the diversity visa scheme. Abdi had long dreamt of moving to America; his childhood friends nicknamed him "Abdi America" after he learned English by watching Hollywood movies. "My whole life I have been in love with America - the best country in the world, the dreamland, the land of opportunity," he told the BBC in 2014. That year, Abdi, now 41, arrived in the US, settled in a small town in Maine, got a job installing insulation, and became a US citizen. But now his hopes have run up against reality: he lost his job at a refugee resettlement agency this year, and consequently his health insurance.
On the eve of the United States' 250th birthday, Abdi, like many Americans, is feeling uneasy about the future. "I feel like the American Dream is alive, but not well," he told me. Meanwhile, Luke Mullen, a 24-year-old actor from California, is planning on moving to Canada because of a lack of film opportunities in Hollywood - of all places. "Wealth is getting consolidated in this country and as that happens, the opportunities are dwindling," he said.
Survey after survey taken ahead of the 250th anniversary shows many Americans feel the "American Dream" - the promise that anyone in the United States can create a bright future - is fading. A recent poll from the Associated Press-NORC found that only a third of the public believes the American Dream still exists. A Pew Research Center study shows that most Americans say the country's best days are behind it. America's 250th birthday also comes at a moment of deep polarization and partisan divide.
The concept of the American Dream dates back to the founding of the US, but the phrase wasn't popularized until 1931, when historian James Truslow Adams wrote in The Epic of America: "It is not a dream of motor cars and high wages merely, but a dream of social order in which each man and each woman shall be able to attain to the fullest stature of which they are innately capable." Over the years, the slogan has evolved, now often associated with entrepreneurialism, social mobility, and economic opportunity. "It has always been about doing better in life than before," says Cyril Ghosh, author of The Politics of the American Dream. "For some people, the better in life is simply not being persecuted by the Church of England."
Researchers say first-generation immigrants, like Abdi, are often more upbeat about America's potential. "Immigrants, for the most part, are more likely to say that they are achieving the Dream, or they've achieved it," said Mark Hugo Lopez of the Pew Research Center. However, fewer immigrants are coming these days. President Trump has made curbing immigration a cornerstone of his presidency, clamping down on illegal entry and blocking legal pathways, including the diversity visa program that Abdi used. Meanwhile, a record number of Americans may be leaving. Last year, the number of Americans moving to Ireland was higher than the number of Irish moving into the US. A record number of Americans are applying for UK citizenship, and The Wall Street Journal reported that the number of Americans arriving to live and work in nearly all of the EU's 27 member states is rising.
For Luke Mullen, it's about job prospects. The actor, who starred in Disney's Andi Mack, says he has more film opportunities in Vancouver, Canada, than in southern California, thanks to Canadian tax credits. He recently became a Canadian citizen. "I'm never gonna abandon America. This is my home and I think it's worth fighting for still," he said.
Statistics suggest the idea that every generation will do better than the one before has eroded. Research by Harvard economist Raj Chetty found that among children born in 1940, 90% grew up to earn more than their parents. Today, only half of children born in the 1980s are on track to do better. The Dream started to decline in the 1970s with globalization and wage stagnation, says Mark Rank, co-author of Chasing the American Dream. Then came the 2008 financial crisis, and many Americans never recovered that economic optimism. Despite this, American wages remain much higher than those in the UK and across much of Europe.
Wide partisan divides persist: surveys show more Republicans still hold the faith, as do older Americans. Young adults seem particularly cynical - one poll found only a fifth of adults aged 18-29 think the Dream remains a possibility. And many Black Americans have long thought the Dream was a myth. Martin Luther King Jr described America as manifesting a "schizophrenic personality" in 1960: "In a real sense America is essentially a dream - a dream yet unfulfilled."
So what does it mean if the Dream - a brand exported around the world in movies, music, and pop culture - feels out of reach? As America turns 250, perhaps it's time for a new dream. Or at least a good night's sleep.