Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared on NBC News's "Meet the Press" Sunday to deliver what may be the most honest economic forecast of the year: oil prices might drop before 2027, but only if the Iran war cooperates. Host Kristen Welker asked about the chances of lower prices by the start of 2027, invoking President Trump's assertion that "this is his economy." Bessent's reply was a masterclass in conditional economics: "Well, again, it will depend on what happens with the Iran conflict."

The secretary acknowledged the U.S. was hit with an "energy shock" after the conflict began, but insisted "core inflation is down." He rattled off the administration's talking points with the confidence of a man reading from a well-worn index card: "The food is below the Fed's targets. The prescription drugs have had the biggest decrease in history. Rents are down. So this is an energy shock. We will get to the other side of the Iran conflict, and those prices will come down."

Bessent maintained that wage increases under the Trump administration have stayed "persistent" throughout the conflict. Welker, however, came armed with numbers: inflation ticked up to 3.7 percent in September, up from 3 percent when Trump entered office. She asked when the administration would take responsibility for the economy. "Well, we will own the economy," Bessent replied, before pivoting to the highlight reel: "So far this year, we've got a million private-sector jobs. We've never had this many people working in the U.S. The net worth of American households are the highest that it's ever been." He then reiterated his core thesis: "So, Kristen, let's be clear here. This is an energy supply side shock. We will get to the other side of this. This is one factor."

The conversation also touched on Trump's Saturday decision to waive Russian sanctions outlined in a recent legislative package named after the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), just days after striking a deal with the Kremlin to permit diesel fuel into the U.S. and global marketplace - a move that drew condemnation from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. Welker asked Bessent whether the deal was "rewarding a dictator who invaded Ukraine." Bessent deflected with the administration's standard line: "President Trump has made it clear he wants the killing to stop. And the so-called Graham bill gives the president the flexibility, gives him 60 days to assess the situation." He also questioned why the U.S. should bear the burden while European countries utilize Russian energy, noting that the U.S. has not revoked former President Biden's sanctions on Russia before the transition of power with Trump in January 2025.

Meanwhile, the American public is less interested in the geopolitical chess match and more interested in the price at the pump. A Fox News poll released last week showed 83 percent of Americans are concerned about high gas prices. The national average on Sunday was $4.29, according to AAA - a figure that has soared in the nearly eight months since the Iran war began.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright, appearing on CNN's "State of the Union," told host Dana Bash that the administration has not broken its promise to lower gas prices, noting they have lowered in recent weeks. When pressed on whether he was comfortable with the price of gas, Wright offered a candid assessment: "No, of course I'm not comfortable but I'm happy they're coming down. They have gone down the last few weeks, as have diesel prices, and they will continue to come down. That's what President Trump works on every day." So there you have it: the prices are high, but they're coming down, and if they don't, well, that's just the energy shock talking.