Saudi Arabia is reportedly gearing up for a major military offensive against the Houthis in central Yemen, because nothing says 'diplomacy' like a land-and-sea assault. Yemeni sources say the Saudis are withdrawing troops from eastern Yemen - classic prep for a land grab - while simultaneously trying to assemble a naval coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks.

The Saudi defence ministry announced Thursday that 14 states, including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan, and Djibouti, have signed on to support a multinational maritime defence coalition. Because nothing unites countries like the shared fear of not being able to export oil.

The Iran-aligned Houthis, who control Yemen's capital Sana'a and much of its Red Sea coastline, declared a blockade against Saudi ships on 20 July. They deny plans to impose tolls on all ships, insisting they'll lift the blockade once Saudi Arabia lifts its own blockade on Yemen. It's a classic 'you first' standoff, but with more missiles.

Riyadh has also asked the US and a group of European countries - Germany, France, the UK, and Italy - to join a Red Sea coalition. The EU already has a naval protection mission, Aspides, operating in the Red Sea, but it's unclear if the Houthis are mounting a general blockade or one aimed solely at Saudi Arabia. Semantics, really.

Houthi forces claimed on 25 July they hit 'sensitive' oil transport sites inside Saudi Arabia, linking eastern province oilfields to a Red Sea export hub. If the Red Sea route closes, Saudi oil exports face severe constraints - up to 80% of crude used to go through the Strait of Hormuz before the Iran war, so the Red Sea has become crucial, with over half of Saudi oil now trucked overland to Yanbu.

Saudi strikes in Iraq on Wednesday killed at least 20 people, retaliating against Iraqi militia for hitting Saudi oil facilities. Donald Trump said the joint US-Saudi attacks had Iraqi government approval - a claim Baghdad didn't confirm. Surprise.

Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman held an urgent meeting with Trump and JD Vance on Wednesday. The Saudis want to show they can defend themselves but aren't eager to escalate war with Iran, insisting diplomacy can still settle US-Iran disagreements. Because that's worked so well so far.

Troop movements inside Yemen suggest a possible attack on al-Bayda, a governorate captured by the Houthis in 2020-21. Fighting has escalated in the past fortnight, with Houthis attacking Saudi Aramco facilities and Saudi airstrikes targeting Hodeidah. A third Saudi commercial vessel was also attacked in the Red Sea.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have been vying for control of Yemen for over a decade, and the uneasy status quo has unravelled over the past month. Tensions might ease if Gulf states and Iran could agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz - talks between Oman and Iran continue, with Iran demanding all shipping use a northern route near its coast. Because nothing says compromise like 'your way or the highway'.