In four days, James will be homeless. The 37-year-old was released from prison in August and placed in temporary probation accommodation in Somerset, but that arrangement expires imminently and he has nowhere to go. "It is scary," he said. "I am not asking for special treatment. But literally nowhere wants to help - I have contacted MPs, solicitors, probation and the council. I am quite tempted to just get myself recalled to prison because it is November. It is cold." Nothing says "rehabilitation" quite like preferring incarceration to a park bench in winter.
Charities and probation staff warn that prisoners are being released into street homelessness, exposing what they call a "fatal flaw" in Andy Burnham's plan to end rough sleeping in England by Christmas. With hundreds of prisoners released early in England and Wales to ease overcrowding, concerns are mounting that rough sleeping numbers could rise just as the weather turns. The timing is, as ever, impeccable.
Tania Bassett of Napo, the probation staff union, said most housing options were already full after October's early releases, and major concerns remain about how the next tranche on 10 November will be housed. "There is this juxtaposition of releasing people into homelessness at the same time as Andy Burnham is saying we're going to solve rough sleeping," she said. "I think there is an assumption that probation can magically bring up houses for people to move into. But there is very little available and it is a big concern for our members." One member, she noted, had been trying to find housing for 10 people released on 1 October; many staff report feeling overwhelmed.
Andy Keen-Downs, chief executive of the Prison Advice and Care Trust (Pact), said: "Every single day we are seeing men and women coming back to prison because they did not make their probation appointment. And when we ask why, they say, 'Well, I was sleeping on a bit of cardboard'. That is still the daily reality." James said everyone he met in the probation hostel had been released without an address, with many sleeping in cars and on benches. He has epilepsy and PTSD, but Somerset council denied him temporary accommodation and probation housing rejected him too.
He also wears two electronic tags - a GPS tracker requiring daily charging and an alcohol monitoring tag that must stay connected to a communication device. "How am I supposed to comply with these requirements while sleeping rough without reliable electricity or somewhere safe to put the equipment? Nobody has given me a satisfactory answer," he said. The government has introduced a "presumption of electronic tagging" for early releases, but Bassett said that cannot happen if homelessness remains high. A tagging policy that assumes a plug socket and a safe place to keep your belongings: bold, if optimistic.
Pact analysis shows the number of prisoners released into rough sleeping has risen 130% in three years, from 6,040 in 2022-23 to 14,360 in 2025-26. Rough sleeping is now recorded in about one in seven prison releases, compared with one in 10 three years ago, and the proportion recorded as "no fixed abode" (homelessness and rough sleeping combined) has risen from 11.3% to 15.9%.
Enver Solomon, CEO of the social justice charity Nacro, recently visited a prison aiming to ensure 84% of prisoners had a roof on release. "Which effectively meant they were accepting that 16% would be homeless," he said. "I think the government realises this is a critical part of the jigsaw, but it is taking time to work out what needs to be done to address it. And time is of the essence."
Keen-Downs welcomed Burnham's ambitions and his £874m funding boost, but said the lack of money for post-prison support was a "fatal flaw". "We need more money for beds, but we also need money for all the support services people need to get from the prison cell into the bed and stay in it," he said. Bassett added: "If there is not any money ringfenced to help prisoners, that is a real missed opportunity to end this never-ending cycle. We will be making strong representations to the chancellor for some of that money to go towards this specific issue."
Somerset council said: "While we cannot comment on individual cases, we have a statutory duty to work with people who are homeless or at risk of homelessness to assess their circumstances, provide appropriate advice and support, and explore all suitable accommodation options for them. We are committed to ending rough sleeping in Somerset, with our aim being to prevent homelessness wherever possible." A government spokesperson said: "We're working with councils and charities to tackle prison leaver homelessness, backed by record investment in probation and our drive to ensure anyone sleeping rough is offered a route off the streets or wider support by Christmas. Prison leavers can also receive support from specialist services after leaving temporary accommodation. We're also training prisoners for work and partnering with hundreds of employers to help prison leavers move straight into jobs, so they can rebuild their lives and contribute to their communities." Because nothing says "rebuild your life" like doing it from a cardboard box.