The El Niño climate phenomenon, currently parked in the Pacific like an uninvited guest who refuses to leave, could develop into the strongest on record, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. Climatologists are watching it with the kind of alarm usually reserved for final exams and bear sightings, describing the forecasts from climate models as “mind blowing” and “astounding.”

Globally, experts have warned that a strong El Niño could team up with global heating to deliver the hottest year on record either this year or, more likely, in 2027 - because why not give us a couple years to panic? The bureau stresses that the strength of an El Niño doesn't necessarily correlate with the strength of impacts in Australia, but it generally brings hotter and drier conditions in winter and spring for southern and eastern parts. So, you know, just the usual.

A major indicator of El Niño’s strength is sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific. Dr Zhi-Weng Chua, a senior climatologist at the bureau, notes that the highest reliable temperature for previous El Niños was +2.6°C in January 1983. Climate models now suggest this El Niño could peak between +2.2°C and above +3°C. “There is a realistic chance that the peak anomaly of this event will rank in the top events, with a chance it could rank as the highest,” Chua said. “It’s remarkable, and it shows just how much heat there is in the ocean.” The bureau’s own model has it peaking at about +3.3°C, persisting until at least next summer.

Dr Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth reviewed 14 seasonal model forecasts and wrote that this El Niño “may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.” Current sea surface temperature maps show a huge tongue of unusually warm water extending east from the northern South American coast. Prof Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the Australian National University said, “Every time I look at it, I have this sense of awe but deep concern. I think it will be one for the record books.”

The bureau’s long-range forecast for August to October shows huge areas of Australia have a high chance of seeing maximum temperatures in the top 20% on record. Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Adelaide, and Perth all face at least an 80% chance of those extremes, along with increased odds of unusually low rainfall. Dr Kim Reid of the University of Melbourne noted that if models are correct, it would be “astounding to see that amount of heat being released from the ocean into the atmosphere.” She’s also watching the Indian Ocean, where a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could combine with El Niño to produce very dry periods, like the “tinderbox drought” before Australia’s black summer bushfires of 2019-2020. So, we wait with bated breath - and maybe a fire extinguisher.