El Niño has officially clocked in, and US officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) announced Thursday that it might be the strongest of the century - because apparently the planet needed a new hobby.
Forecasters had been teasing a “super” El Niño for summer, one that would supercharge extreme weather and push global temperatures to record heights. Noaa says there’s a high probability this year’s event, peaking in fall or winter, “would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950.” A strong El Niño could put 2027 in the running for global heat records, while producing devastating effects like supercharged rainstorms or drought, depending on where you live.
The ocean and atmosphere are inextricably linked - that’s why forecasters obsess over ocean temperatures to predict weather patterns. El Niño is defined by warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, part of a trio of states: La Niña (cooler), neutral (average), and this. Together they form the “El Niño-southern oscillation” (Enso), which develops in spring and shifts every three to seven years. Warming during El Niño can range from 1C to 3C, with enormous effects on precipitation, drought, heat, and climate disasters.
During El Niño years, winds that normally push warm waters west soften or shift direction, warming surface waters. Conditions at least 0.5C above normal massively impact weather and often push global temperatures higher. Climate scientists note each event is unique, but Enso predictions help people prepare for extreme weather shifts - essential in a warming world.
El Niño alters jet streams and flips precipitation patterns, fueling severe storms in some areas while desiccating others. It also spikes rising temperatures higher, at least briefly. A super El Niño in 2015 brought severe drought in Ethiopia, water shortages in Puerto Rico, and smashed records with a vicious hurricane season in the central north Pacific.
The cycle tends to create drought and heat across Australia, southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America including the Amazon. Heavy precipitation could hit the southern US, parts of the Middle East, and south-central Asia.
A “super” El Niño simply means a stronger one - it’s already acquired nicknames from “super” to “Godzilla.” These rare events are defined by sea surface temperatures spiking at least 2C, which has only occurred a few times since 1950, and only once past 2.5C. Noaa says there’s a 63% chance this El Niño will rank among the largest since 1950.
Dr Paul Roundy, a professor at SUNY Albany, wrote in April of “real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years.” Dr Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami added: “All models and observations are pointing in the same direction.” Ken Graham, director of Noaa’s National Weather Service, cautioned: “Every El Nino is not the same; each one is unique with its own imprint on our weather.”
In the US, impacts vary regionally. The south gets stormier weather; the west coast sees wet winters, high tide flooding, and algal blooms; the east coast gets dampened Atlantic hurricane seasons but boosted Pacific hurricane activity; the northern Rockies and south-west - experiencing severe snow drought - can get strong summer rains.
Forecasters agree the 2026-2027 season could see one of the largest El Niños in modern history. Celeste Saulo, World Meteorological Organization secretary general, noted that “the most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024.” The pattern typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months.
Deluges could offer welcome relief for thirsty US states hoping water shortages from dire snowpack might be bailed out by strong summer monsoon and wetter winter. But Tom Di Liberto of Climate Central warned that dry conditions have been fueled by heat, and reprieve is unlikely. Experts say dry water basins won’t rebound after one wet season - particularly in the US south-west, where some reservoirs are at all-time lows.
“Just because we’re expecting a large-scale change in the climate pattern doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re going to see drought completely erased,” said Dr Joel Lisonbee of the University of Colorado Boulder. “It would have to be exceptionally wet - that would also mean flooding, and the destruction and potential loss of life that comes along with that.”