In a move that definitely isn't a sign of global panic, G7 leaders have agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency diesel and crude oil stockpiles after being nagged into it by Donald Trump, who wants fuel prices down before US voters head to the midterm polls in November. Nothing says "energy security" like a coordinated reserve dump.
The drawdown will be orchestrated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and rolled out over four months, according to French president Emmanuel Macron, who currently chairs the G7 - a club that also includes the US, UK, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan. Macron confirmed the plan on Friday after a leaders' video meeting, presumably with everyone trying to look calm.
Macron said the G7 wanted to "work in a coordinated manner to help bring down the prices of petroleum products, particularly diesel." European countries had spent recent days being leaned on by the White House to release emergency supplies or face a US diesel export ban. Trump has said he's considering stopping diesel exports to cool domestic fuel prices before the November midterms - because nothing helps allies like a good old-fashioned squeeze.
Macron added that G7 members and partners would front-load a substantial diesel release within the first 20 days. Leaders also agreed to make production more flexible so refineries can run at maximum capacity, and pledged not to "restrict the exchange of energy and petroleum products between partner countries." In other words: no hoarding, please.
"We have all committed together to releasing these strategic reserves in the proportions I mentioned, with a focus on diesel, and we are all committed to ensuring there are no export bans, and President Trump, in particular, was very clear on this point," Macron said, presumably through a diplomatic smile.
The G7 said it would discuss the "possibility of additional diesel releases as necessary" in the coming days - because nothing says decisive action like a wait-and-see approach.
A US export ban would have been a headache for Europe, which produces about 70% of the diesel it consumes from domestic refineries but relies on imports to cover the rest. Oil analysts had warned that a global scramble for diesel cargoes would push prices even higher. So, you know, fun times.
The average price of diesel hit a record £2 a litre on UK forecourts on Friday, because why not. Filling up an average family car now costs £110, according to the RAC motoring group - nearly £32 more than before the Iran war. Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, said: "This is a pump price threshold that no one wanted to cross." The RAC figures are averages, but many forecourts have been charging above £2 a litre for a while now.
Trump, never one to miss a victory lap, posted on Truth Social: "Europe has just agreed to release a massive amount of their heavily stocked diesel oil. The process will begin immediately." Subtlety, as ever, is not the point.
However, Macquarie Group's Walt Chancellor threw cold water on the whole affair, telling CNBC that the reserve release won't fix the underlying US problem. "The core issue the US faces is not a diesel problem. Nor is it a refined product problem. It may not even be a petroleum problem. It is a global energy problem," he said. "So what is the solution then? In short, more oil through the strait of Hormuz and out of the Middle East. Anything short of that is really just shuffling deck chairs." Charming.
The IEA - the world's energy watchdog - had already ordered the largest release of government oil reserves in its history in March, agreeing to unleash 400 million barrels of emergency crude to calm the oil price shock sparked by US-Israeli attacks on Iran. That was a third of the group's total government stockpiles and more than double the 182 million barrels released in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Brent crude was trading at just above $100 a barrel on Friday, compared with about $72 before the Iran war started. So, to summarise: the world is burning through emergency reserves, diesel costs more than a decent bottle of wine, and the best we can do is shuffle deck chairs. Cheers.
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