American consumers are feeling less than optimistic, which is what happens when you combine rising inflation, a war, and gas prices that look like they were designed by someone with a grudge. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers' index fell to 48.1 in September, a four-month low, down 7 percent from August and 15 percent from January.

For those keeping score at home, this index measures how people feel about their personal finances and the broader economy in order to predict future spending - which, inconveniently, accounts for the bulk of U.S. economic activity. So when consumers get gloomy, the economy gets gloomy. It's a real chicken-and-egg situation, except the chicken is $6.50 diesel.

The pessimism is remarkably bipartisan. Republican sentiment dropped 20 percent since January, while Democratic confidence fell 13 percent over the same period. Nothing brings Americans together quite like shared economic dread.

Joanna Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers, pointed to renewed worries over rising fuel prices and re-escalating trade disputes as the main culprits. "Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across demographic and political groups that the outlook for the economy has softened over the course of the year," she said, presumably with a straight face.

She also noted that 31 percent of interviewees spontaneously mentioned gasoline when asked about the economy in September - up from the previous two months. Nothing says "economic anxiety" like unprompted gas station references.

The root of the fuel-price problem: the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil is exported, amid the ongoing U.S. war with Iran. The national average for gas hit $4.49 per gallon as of Friday, $1.34 higher than last year, according to AAA. Diesel reached $6.50 per gallon. And consumers are not expecting relief anytime soon.

"In fact, consumers do not believe that relief from high gas prices is on the horizon; they broadly expect gasoline prices to continue rising in both the short and long run," Hsu said. Cheery.

An Emerson College poll found that 60 percent of U.S. adults believe President Trump's policies are making the economy worse - up from 49 percent in Emerson's 100 Day Poll from April 2025. That's a 11-point jump in economic disapproval, which is the kind of growth nobody wants to see in a confidence survey.

Inflation expectations also climbed from 4 percent in August to 4.6 percent in September, exceeding February's 3.4 percent reading (before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran) and every expectation rate for all of 2024. Long-run inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4 percent from three consecutive months at 3.3 percent - higher than 2024 readings, which ranged from 2.8 percent to 3.2 percent.

So to recap: gas is expensive, diesel is more expensive, inflation is up, confidence is down, and everyone from both parties agrees things are bad. At least we're united in something.