Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky decided on 15 July to not re-appoint Mykhailo Fedorov as defence minister during a cabinet reshuffle, and the political fallout has been reverberating ever since - even as Russian drones and missiles continue to be intercepted overhead. Fedorov's mostly young supporters have been mounting daily street protests, demanding the reinstatement of the popular young innovator widely credited with driving much of Ukraine's recent technological innovation.

Fedorov rejected Zelensky's offers of alternative posts in government, saying only three positions were worth having to influence the course of the war: minister of defence, commander-in-chief of the military, or president of Ukraine. His reference to the presidency did not go unnoticed, sparking speculation that the ousted minister sees himself as a rival to Zelensky. One opposition MP called Fedorov's behaviour "childish," saying he's "looking to further his political career, which I think is just stupid in the circumstances where we are."

To replace the unpopular commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Zelensky eventually decided on Maj Gen Mykhailo Drapatyi, 43, a highly respected former commander of Ukraine's land forces. Former government adviser Yuriy Sak said Zelensky consulted "pretty much every significant figure in the Ukrainian army," calling Drapatyi "a young, battle-proven, modern general." But while Drapatyi's appointment has been generally welcomed, it only represents a partial fix for a president scrambling to repair the damage from Fedorov's removal.

Ironically, for a president whose youth and dynamism propelled him to power in 2019, Zelensky seems to have misjudged the mood of young Ukrainians eager for leaders who represent their values. Oleksandr Merezhko, an MP from Zelensky's Servant of the People party, noted that people want "someone who is a warrior against corruption, who is very modern, who is young." He quoted from Robert Greene's 1998 self-help book, The 48 Laws of Power: "Don't outshine your master." Most analysts agree the reshuffle aimed to cut Fedorov down to size, but it backfired: "His rating soared. Just soared," Merezhko said.

Some question whether Fedorov's outsized reputation is fully justified, pointing out he inherited a situation where Ukraine had already built up its strike capabilities. A former European defence official noted that the innovation culture is "2,000 companies, not a single individual." One opposition MP bluntly said that 99% of the young protesters have no clue how the ministry of defence operates, adding that they think Fedorov is good because he wants to fight with drones, while Syrskyi was bad for looking for people to fight - "a dramatic simplification which is totally wrong."

Everyone agrees Ukraine needs to put this politically toxic episode behind it before autumn and another Russian assault on its energy grid. Zelensky said on Telegram on Thursday, "We need to prepare for how we will get through the winter." Politicians and experts mostly agree that while the episode undermines Zelensky's authority, Ukraine is unlikely to see significant battlefield setbacks. As opposition MP Andrii Osadchuk put it, "The secret of Ukraine's success is that we are much stronger horizontally than vertically."