Anthony Albanese is in Palau this week for the annual Pacific Islands Forum, where regional security is expected to top the agenda. But let's be honest: when China is testing nuclear-capable missiles in the Pacific and the US-Iran war is inflating fuel bills, the real security threat might just be the planet itself heating up to a crisp.

China's missile test in July, which flew over multiple Pacific nations and landed near Tuvalu's exclusive economic zone, has sparked talk of a new regional security agreement. Solomon Islands' PM Matthew Wale called it "not the act of a friend," which is rich coming from the guy whose country signed a security deal with China in 2022. Canberra has since been busy stitching together bilateral deals with Tuvalu (2023), Naoero (2024), Papua New Guinea (2025), and Vanuatu (2026), with Tonga and Solomon Islands in the pipeline. The latest, an Ocean of Peace Alliance with Fiji in July, is a mutual defence pact open to all Pacific nations - because nothing says peace like a military alliance.

Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict has pushed the Pacific toward an energy crisis. About 80% of the region's energy relies on imported oil, much of it transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Pacific island countries are spending between 10% and 25% of their GDP on fossil fuels - compare that to 8% on education and 6% on health. Fiji's annual fuel import costs could rise by US$375m (A$520m) if oil prices stay high, which is more than its entire healthcare budget. But hey, who needs hospitals when you have diesel generators?

Renewable energy offers a solution. Swapping diesel for solar and battery storage could save Pacific countries about US$700m (A$520m) annually. Palau's president, Surangel Whipps Jr, wants the region to be the first 100% renewable-powered in the world, with US$120m (A$166m) needed to add 60MW of solar and storage, covering 90% of Palau's power needs. That's a bargain compared to the cost of not doing it.

Climate change has been called "the single greatest threat" to Pacific security by forum leaders, echoing their 2007 UN Security Council plea that its impacts are "no less serious than those faced by nations threatened by guns and bombs." In 2025, Earth was 1.44C warmer than the long-term average, and the oceans are the warmest on record, with a record-breaking El Niño looming. It's now almost certain the world will pass 1.5C, but with deep emissions cuts and "net-negative" emissions, we might claw it back by century's end.

Pacific nations expect Australia to reaffirm the 1.5C commitment, especially as it helps Fiji and Tuvalu host a pre-Cop summit in October. They're also seeking finance for a Pacific-owned climate fund for community adaptation. Some say collaboration is expensive, but investing in renewables and adaptation is investing in shared security - even as China and the US play their geopolitical chess game. Wesley Morgan of UNSW's Institute for Climate Risk and Response notes this in a piece originally published in The Conversation. So, while the forum misses key leaders like Solomon Islands' Matthew Wale (who flew out early to deal with a leadership challenge) and others, the message is clear: the biggest threat isn't missiles - it's the weather.