A fresh wave of satellite constellations has filed claims for non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) spectrum with the FCC, but newcomers might find themselves squeezed tighter than a sardine in a can next to the industry's vertically integrated giants. The FCC's latest processing round for Ku-, Ka-, and V-band frequencies closed July 6, putting everyone on 'equal footing' - which, in the satellite world, is like putting a tricycle on the starting line with a Tesla.
SpaceX, the poster child for 'we got here first,' proposed a whopping 100,000 new satellites for its Gen 3 network, tailored for an AI era that it claims has taken hold since it filed for roughly 30,000 Gen 2 spacecraft six years ago. With more than 10,000 Starlink broadband satellites already in orbit - built, launched, and operated by SpaceX itself - the company is also seeking FCC approval for up to 1 million orbital data centers to support AI computing. Because why stop at blanketing Earth with internet when you can also host the cloud?
Amazon, through an earlier filing, has already secured permission to add over 4,500 Gen 2 and Polar satellites to its fleet. The internet giant has deployed more than 390 of its 3,232 approved Gen 1 satellites, enough to start commercial services in the coming months. Blue Origin, owned by billionaire Jeff Bezos (who apparently has a thing for space), is seeking permission for more than 5,400 TeraWave satellites aimed at enterprise and government users.
Europe's Eutelsat and SES filed for follow-on satellites to complement their smaller NGSO networks, while Telesat seeks design changes for its Lightspeed constellation as it prepares to deploy the initial 198 satellites for global services in 2028. In contrast, the remaining applicants - Logos, Rivada, CesiumAstro, Astra, LTS Systems/Theia, and SpinLaunch's SN Space subsidiary - account for more than 13,700 satellites but are starting from scratch, with vague ambitions to provide secure, private connectivity for enterprise and government customers.
'SpaceX's progress and Amazon's determination make it difficult for other broadband entrants in the U.S. and U.S.-allied countries,' said Armand Musey, a satellite industry analyst and founder of Summit Ridge Group. While there may be niche enterprise applications, he said it's not obvious whether an upstart could sustain another network. Simply targeting niches that Starlink or Amazon are not serving today is unlikely to be a durable long-term strategy, according to Grace Khanuja, senior manager at Novaspace. If a niche proves attractive, she said, these hyperscalers have the capital, manufacturing prowess, and launch access to enter quickly and compete aggressively, including on price. 'The more compelling opportunity is to identify structural gaps where the hyperscalers are less well positioned, rather than temporary gaps in market coverage,' Khanuja said.
Shifting geopolitics appear to be creating more room for entrants as governments grow increasingly wary of relying on a single provider, but price will remain a major consideration. Musey flagged China as an international wildcard, with megaconstellations coming out of the country threatening to disrupt Western operators turning to developing countries for a critical mass of subscribers. 'The real competition will likely be driven by geopolitical forces as opposed to rational economic behavior,' he said. 'Countries aligned with China will likely put regulatory barriers that favor the Chinese options and foreclose the use of U.S. options, and the U.S. is likely to do the same with Chinese providers.'
Ultimately, Khanuja said opportunities for newcomers lie in occupying parts of the market where differentiation comes from sovereignty, security, and mission-specific capabilities, rather than building another sprawling Starlink network. 'The winners are more likely to complement the hyperscale operators than compete with them head-on for broadband subscribers.' So, newcomers, take heart: there's always room for a niche - just don't expect to out-Starlink Starlink.