All-night slot machine shops and casinos might be in for a £460m tax wallop if Andy Burnham gets to be prime minister and acts on his long-standing grumpiness about the gambling industry. The Social Market Foundation (SMF) thinktank released polling Monday showing 43% of the public would back a future Labour government raising taxes on adult gaming centres (AGCs) - those charmingly named “slot sheds” that have been popping up on UK high streets like mushrooms after rain, with a particular fondness for economically deprived areas.

While online casinos got a tax hike in Rachel Reeves’s November budget, physical slot machines in AGCs were left untouched. But Burnham, widely tipped to oust Reeves as chancellor if he becomes PM, has previously condemned reports of AGCs exploiting vulnerable people and called for tougher regulation. He also backed a Gordon Brown proposal last year to fund an end to the two-child benefit cap by squeezing more tax from the gambling industry.

Doubling machine games duty (MGD) from 20% to 40% could rake in an extra £275m to £458m on top of the £600m the machines already pay, according to the SMF. That would hit casinos and big AGC operators like Austrian-owned Admiral and German-owned Merkur - the latter fined last year after exploiting a gambling addict with terminal cancer. Bookmakers would also feel the pinch, a side-effect that apparently spooked Reeves after horse racing industry complaints about losing levy revenue.

The proposal would spare lower-stakes pub fruit machines (categories C and D) to avoid kicking the beleaguered hospitality sector while it’s down. But Bacta, the trade body for AGCs and amusement arcades, called the SMF report “fantasy economics and grossly irresponsible,” predicting job losses and a push toward illegal markets. The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) agreed, insisting betting shops “keep high streets alive and provide valued community spaces.”

Burnham has twice backed calls for local authorities to get more power to block new slot sheds, and earlier this year signed a letter to Keir Starmer urging him to scrap the “aim to permit” rule from the 2005 Gambling Act - a rule Burnham himself helped introduce when he was a junior minister in Tony Blair’s government. That rule forces licensing authorities to lean toward allowing new gambling venues, tying councils’ hands even when locals object. The government didn’t scrap it but introduced “gambling impact assessments” via the Devolution Act in April, a milder measure also backed by Burnham.

In Bowes Park, Enfield, that may be too late for a campaign group fighting a new 24-hour Palace Amusements venue on a residential street. “There are already 18 gambling premises within 1.5 miles,” said campaigner Rick Harrison. “Businesses think it will increase crime and antisocial behaviours. Why do we have to accept that it’s only vape shops and gambling shops that can open?” Godden Gaming, behind Palace Amusements, said Enfield council doesn’t consider the area a vulnerability zone and that they’ve done a risk assessment.