Marine Le Pen will learn on Tuesday whether she can run for the French presidency next year, as a Paris appeal court decides at 13:30 (12:30 BST) whether to uphold her embezzlement conviction. She's run for president three times before, coming second to Emmanuel Macron in 2017 and 2022, but this time she's topping the polls with 10 months to go. If she can't run, her young protégé Jordan Bardella will step in, making this verdict a potential game-changer for France.

The original conviction on 31 March 2025 barred her from public office for five years and handed her a four-year jail term (two suspended, two under house arrest with an electronic tag) for embezzling €1.4m (£1.2m) in European Parliament funds to pay her own party staff from 2004 to 2016. Le Pen, who was an MEP from 2004 to 2017, admitted to "a mistake" but denied orchestrating the scheme.

Prosecutors want the five-year ban to stand, with a modified jail term of one year under tag and three suspended. Le Pen claims she's not afraid but notes it's "not possible" to campaign while tagged. She's painted herself as a victim of judicial bias, but the original trial found she was "at the heart" of the fake-jobs scheme, having "authoritatively embraced" the system set up by her father.

The verdict options: acquittal (unlikely), guilty with a ban over two years (she's out), guilty with a ban of two years or less (she can run), or a four-year jail term with one year tagged (she'd be free but tagged). She could appeal to the Court of Cassation, but that would take months and hamper campaigning - she's indicated she wouldn't go that route.

If barred, Bardella - who turns 31 in September - would be the RN candidate. Le Pen has said he'd be her prime minister if she were president, and she'd support him "with great energy" if she can't run. Opponents mock the idea she'd leave him alone, and polls show Bardella doing slightly better than her in the first round. Conservative candidate Bruno Retailleau quipped that after loving a 40-year-old president, France would "certainly adore having a president of 30."

Le Pen will appear on TF1's 20:00 news Tuesday night to clarify her intentions. Meanwhile, 12 other convicted RN figures - including Louis Aliot, Nicolas Bay, Bruno Gollnisch, Catherine Griset, and Wallerand de Saint-Just - are also appealing their sentences.