Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is celebrating a milestone her predecessors could only dream of: her government has become the longest-running since World War II. And she's doing it in style, with a festival in Bari complete with food trucks, water stations, and traditional Puglian light shows, all to entertain a crowd of 10,000 bused in from across Italy. The youth wing of her far-right Brothers of Italy party has been handing out flyers and wearing T-shirts that declare, 'Il Governo più stabile, l'Italia più forte' - which translates to 'the most stable government, the strongest Italy.' Nothing says stability like a coordinated PR campaign.

But beneath the confetti, Meloni's political footing is less solid than the slogan suggests. Enter Roberto Vannacci, a former army general who has crashed the party from the far-right flank. His new party, Futuro Nazionale, launched in February, has surged to about 8% in the polls, overtaking the League and eclipsing Forza Italia. Vannacci first grabbed headlines in 2023 with a self-published book so full of racism, homophobia, Islamophobia, and antisemitism that it cost him his army job but made him a bestseller. Now he's an MEP and a thorn in Meloni's side.

His manifesto is a greatest hits of reactionary politics: abortion is 'not a right,' gay people should be banned from TV between 6am and 11pm to protect children from 'homosexualist' content, and schools should introduce military education. He also wants a 'remigration' plan to kick out irregular immigrants and foreign nationals who commit crimes. On Ukraine, he'd pick Vladimir Putin over Volodymyr Zelenskyy - because why not cozy up to the guy invading a neighbor? In July, he hosted a 'Futuristic Triathlon' in Sanremo, an event designed to 'temper the mind and body' in an eerie echo of Mussolini-era fascist aesthetics. Because nothing says 'new party' like recycling old fascist tropes.

Meloni, who has governed more moderately than expected - at least on the surface - now faces a dilemma. Her pragmatic, pro-Ukraine stance abroad has left a vacuum on the far-right at home, and Vannacci is filling it. Her coalition has been fiscally prudent but has avoided major structural reforms, focusing instead on law and order. Critics like Democratic MP Lia Quartapelle argue the government has squandered its stability: 'None of the core issues have been addressed - we have stagnant productivity and growth, salaries that have lagged behind for many years and an education system that is not up to the pace.'

Azione MP Giulia Pastorella adds that Meloni's foreign policy focus has backfired: 'The Italian electorate is tired of talking about foreign policy and would rather discuss national politics - this is precisely what Vannacci has understood.' Meanwhile, Brothers of Italy MEP Michele Picaro dismisses the polls: 'This is a government that is more used to working than looking at percentages.' He points to lower unemployment, reduced irregular immigration, tax cuts for the self-employed, and a southern investment initiative as proof of progress.

But with a possible election as early as April, Meloni is scrambling. She's pivoted to hardline rhetoric on migration, particularly after the influx of migrants from Morocco into Spain's Ceuta enclave, and is pushing a contentious electoral law that would give a majority bonus to any alliance winning over 42% of the vote - a move critics see as a self-serving power grab. If Vannacci keeps rising, Meloni might try to absorb him before the vote, risking her moderate supporters, or she could cut a post-election pact with him, leading to what many would see as a frightening lurch to the extreme right.

Forza Italia's Alessandro Cattaneo, however, insists Vannacci is beyond the pale: 'It would not be possible to govern with him ... the coalition needs to continue to work seriously for the remainder of this administration and explain better to people what we have done. The best antidote to the extreme right is to show our seriousness.' Sure, because that's worked so well so far.