In news that will surprise absolutely no one who has been paying attention to the Middle East for the past several decades, Iran has announced that a deal with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is "close to being finalised." Reports suggest Tehran would have control over ships entering the Gulf through the strategic waterway - a detail that sounds less like a compromise and more like a polite way of saying "we're in charge now."
Both countries, which sit on opposite ends of the narrow strait, have been engaged in talks to jointly manage the key shipping route, which has been effectively closed since the start of the war in February. Iran has insisted the strait would not operate as it did before the conflict, as an open international waterway that carried about a fifth of the world's oil and gas supply, as it seeks greater control over the flow of maritime traffic through the channel. Several media reports, citing sources familiar with the talks, suggest Oman would oversee outbound shipping through the strait. Because nothing says "joint management" like one country controlling the inbound flow and the other handling the outbound.
But despite reports of potentially one of the biggest concessions yet to Iran, Reuters news agency said Iranian sources rejected US President Donald Trump's claims that a deal to reopen the strait was imminent, saying important details were still to be agreed. "The concession has already been made regarding some form of control over Hormuz," one of the sources said, which is diplomatic for "we're still haggling over the fine print."
Iran has also said that reopening the strait would hinge on the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Because, of course, why would you open the door if someone's standing on your foot?
Trump told Fox News earlier this week that talks over the strait were "moving along nicely," adding that the strait "is going to be open very soon." Meanwhile, Iranian sources are reportedly saying, "Not so fast, Don."
In Yemen, meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthis said yesterday they had attacked two Saudi oil tankers with ballistic missiles, amid the group's maritime blockade of the kingdom. Because nothing says "we're open to negotiations" like launching missiles at oil tankers.
Two Israeli reserve soldiers were killed and four seriously injured in an explosion in southern Lebanon, the military said this morning - the first Israeli deaths since the fragile truce between Israel and the Iran-backed militant Hezbollah in June. An Israeli military official told the Associated Press that "an explosion was detonated" when the soldiers entered a site in the village of Majdal Zoun and that the nature of the explosive was under review. "Under review" is a nice way of saying "someone blew up our soldiers, but we're not sure who to blame yet."
One person was killed and 12 wounded in an Israeli strike in the southern Lebanese town of Tebnine, Lebanon's health ministry said. The Israeli military earlier told residents of the southern Lebanese village of Mansouri to evacuate - the first such order in more than a month - saying it was in response to a Hezbollah ceasefire violation. Because the best way to maintain a ceasefire is to order evacuations and conduct strikes.
The escalations came despite ongoing US-backed talks in Rome aimed at ending hostilities. Israel requested that yesterday's talks with Lebanon end three hours early, a source told AFP, saying the Israeli delegation's head had blamed alleged "misleading leaks" by the Lebanese side. But the talks are expected to resume today for a third and final day. Because nothing says "productive negotiations" like walking out early and blaming the other side for leaks.
A Houthi military spokesperson said its latest attacks targeted the eighth and ninth Saudi oil tankers since the start of its blockade last month. Saudi authorities had no immediate comment. Probably because they were too busy counting the holes in their tankers.
Shipping traffic through the Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb straits - the key maritime chokepoints in the Gulf - reduced significantly yesterday from the previous day, shipping data showed. Because when you're shooting at ships, people tend to avoid the area. Funny how that works.
Iran has made a concerted diplomatic push with Gulf states, warning them explicitly that Tehran will hit their oil, power and water plants unless they convince Trump to end US strikes on Iran and seek a negotiated end to the war, Reuters reports. So the diplomatic approach is essentially: "Convince your American friend to stop bombing us, or we'll bomb your oil fields." Charming.
Sources told Reuters that the message was delivered through a flurry of high-level diplomatic contacts after Trump threatened on 28 July to strike Iran's energy network and infrastructure. "The Iranian warning was unequivocal: if America targeted Iran's infrastructure, they would retaliate by striking Gulf energy facilities and other regional targets," one Gulf source said. Because nothing says "diplomacy" like threatening to blow up your neighbors' stuff.
Yemeni authorities said on Thursday that they would retaliate to several Houthi rebel attacks earlier in the day, which medical sources told AFP had killed at least 38 government troops and injured 29 in the deadliest toll since the 2022 truce between both sides. The defence ministry of Yemen's internationally recognised government said in a statement that its armed forces would respond to the missile and drone attacks "at the appropriate place and time." So, stay tuned for more violence.
The Iran-backed Houthis had earlier confirmed that they were behind the attacks on military camps in Yemen that left dozens dead. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group had deployed ballistic missiles and drones on what they described as Saudi mobilisation in the Al-Ruwyk, Al-Abr, and Al-Thaniyah areas of Yemen. The attacks, he said, were in response to "large Saudi military buildups in their final stages, aimed at escalating the aggression against the liberated provinces." "We will continue the 'siege for siege' equation until the siege on our country is lifted," Saree added. Because nothing says "we want peace" like promising a siege for a siege.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump insisted that he is "extremely happy" with the work his defence secretary Pete Hegseth is doing at the Pentagon, dismissing a report that the two clashed over concerns about US munitions shortages after five months of war against Iran. It comes after the Washington Post reported that the US president and Hegseth clashed during a cabinet meeting at Camp David last Friday over the munitions shortages, with Trump reportedly demanding answers after being under the impression the issue "had been fixed." The shortages were part of the reason that Trump had to call off what he said would be "the biggest attack since World War II" in recent days, sources told the paper. Hegseth reportedly blamed his deputy for the shortages and for Trump not being fully informed on the matter. Because nothing says "accountability" like blaming your deputy.
It came after Trump hit back on Wednesday night at media reports suggesting the US was running low on weapons. The US has "massive amounts of munitions, especially of certain types," he said in a Truth Social post, adding: "Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the U.S. as needed." He continued: "Defense companies are building the largest number of plants and factories in our country's history. The 'leakers' of these treasonous statements are being hunted down." Because nothing says "transparency" like hunting down leakers.
The 7th round of US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon in Rome, which concluded on Thursday, were "productive" at the technical and expert levels, according to the US state department. Spokesman Tommy Pigott said in a statement that "Lebanon and Israel are much closer to reaching an agreement on advancing and expanding the pilot zones process," but did not give further details. Because "productive" and "much closer" are diplomatic speak for "we're still not there yet."
There were three days of talks in Rome, the second of which was cut short after Israel resumed heavy strikes on southern Lebanon on Wednesday, accusing Hezbollah of violating the fragile ceasefire agreement initially agreed upon on 26 June. But as the United Nations and local authorities have noted, Israel had continued to launch periodic airstrikes, shelling, and demolitions in the areas of southern Lebanon it's occupying, despite the truce, killing more than 350 people. Because a ceasefire only counts if it's convenient.
The renewed Israeli attacks came as hundreds thousands of displaced people had begun returning to their homes in southern Lebanon, only to be forced to flee again under new orders from the IDF. Because nothing says "we care about civilians" like ordering them to flee again.
Two weeks ago, the Lebanese army was allowed to deploy to one of the first "pilot zones," after Israeli troops pulled out of the village of Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh. Since then, Israel has largely refused to withdraw its troops from the areas it occupies in Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms. Because disarmament is always a precondition, except when it isn't.
More than 4,300 people have been killed since Israel began its attacks and ground invasion of Lebanon, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Over 12,000 have been injured and more than 1.2 million displaced. Because those numbers are just statistics until you're one of them.
Iran has made a concerted diplomatic push with Gulf states, warning them explicitly that Tehran will hit their oil, power and water plants unless they convince Donald Trump to end US strikes on Iran and seek a negotiated end to the war, Reuters reports. According to a senior Iranian official, the warning envisaged attacks on the energy facilities, oil fields, refineries, electricity grids, water infrastructure, transport networks and other strategic assets of Washington's closest Arab allies. So, the Iranians have a very detailed list of what they'd blow up. How thoughtful.
The sources told Reuters that the message was delivered through a flurry of high-level diplomatic contacts after Trump threatened on 28 July to strike Iran's energy network and infrastructure. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, urged Washington's Gulf allies to use their influence with Trump to dissuade him from launching renewed strikes, the senior diplomat said, warning that any attack on Iran would prompt retaliation against US assets and critical infrastructure across the Gulf. His message was consistent in every conversation, the diplomat said: "We're ready to retaliate, but finding a diplomatic solution is the best way to avoid wider escalation and destruction across the region." Because nothing says "we're ready to talk" like threatening to blow up everything.
"The Iranian warning was unequivocal: if America targeted Iran's infrastructure, they would retaliate by striking Gulf energy facilities and other regional targets," one Gulf source said. Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman subsequently spoke with Trump, urging him to delay military action, return to negotiations, secure a ceasefire and pursue a diplomatic settlement, the senior diplomat and Gulf sources told Reuters. On 2 August, the US president said he agreed to cancel the attack on Iran "subject to being able to rapidly make a deal." So, the attack is on hold, pending a deal that may or may not happen.
US Central Command has said it is continuing to enforce the US blockade against Iran, which has been back in place since 14 July as part of Washington's efforts to pressure Tehran into negotiations. In a post on X on Thursday, Centcom said US marines redirect 49 commercial vessels, disabled two and boarded two other vessels. Because nothing says "we're open to negotiations" like disabling commercial vessels.
Yemeni authorities said on Thursday that they would retaliate to several Houthi rebel attacks earlier in the day, which medical sources told AFP had killed at least 38 government troops and injured 29 in the deadliest toll since the 2022 truce between both sides. The defence ministry of Yemen's internationally recognised government said in a statement that its armed forces would respond to the missile and drone attacks "at the appropriate place and time." Because revenge is a dish best served with a side of "appropriate timing."
As we reported earlier, the Iran-backed Houthis confirmed that they were behind the attacks on military camps in Yemen that left dozens dead. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group had deployed ballistic missiles and drones on what they described as Saudi mobilisation in the Al-Ruwyk, Al-Abr, and Al-Thaniyah areas of Yemen. The attacks, he said, were in response to "large Saudi military buildups in their final stages, aimed at escalating the aggression against the liberated provinces." "We will continue the 'siege for siege' equation until the siege on our country is lifted," Saree added. It comes after the Houthis said on Wednesday that they had attacked two Saudi oil tankers with ballistic missiles, amid the group's naval blockade of the kingdom. The country's conflict has become the latest front in the US-Iran war, with Yemen increasingly at risk of being pushed into a more intense cycle of violence and retaliation after the Houthi rebels upended a 2022 truce with the Saudi-backed government last month. Because why have one war when you can have three?
Donald Trump is insisting that he is "extremely happy" with the work his defence secretary Pete Hegseth is doing at the Pentagon, dismissing a report that the two clashed over concerns about US munitions shortages after five months of war against Iran. Because everything is fine, folks. Nothing to see here.