Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy - where the headlines are a mixed bag of 'don't panic' and 'maybe panic a little.'
With summer approaching, holidaymakers have been nervously eyeing the Middle East crisis, wondering if their beach-bound flights might run on fumes. But fear not, says the European Union's transport chief, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, who told Reuters: 'There is currently no jet fuel shortage in Europe. We have no signs that we will have a shortage in the coming period.' He attributes the calm to airlines cutting uneconomic routes - a fancy way of saying demand destruction via high fuel prices. In May, airlines slashed two million seats from schedules, less than 2% of global capacity, which is either a sign of prudence or a looming summer of discontent.
Tzitzikostas did warn that things could get 'very difficult' by year's end if Middle Eastern supplies remain disrupted, adding: 'It's critical that the war stops and that the Strait of Hormuz opens.' He assures us Europe has emergency stocks, which is comforting, though back in April, the International Energy Agency said Europe has only six weeks of jet fuel left. Seven weeks on, flights continue, but ticket prices are rising faster than a stressed-out traveler's blood pressure.
Meanwhile, the eurozone is on the brink of a technical recession, thanks to a 12.1% slump in Ireland's GDP - driven by a 27.1% plunge in its multinational-dominated sectors as the pandemic-era pharma demand unwinds. Eurostat reported a 0.2% GDP drop in Q1 2026, following a 0.2% rise in Q4 2025, meeting the definition of two consecutive quarterly falls. Ireland's modified domestic demand, a more accurate measure of its domestic economy, actually rose 0.6%, but Eurostat uses GDP, so here we are. Denmark led growth at +1.9%, while Lithuania (-0.3%), Sweden (-0.2%), and France (-0.1%) brought up the rear.
Elsewhere, India is launching E85 fuel (85% ethanol) to diversify supplies, UK firms are hiking prices while expecting lower profits, global food prices stabilized in May (though sugar rose 7.5% and cereals 2.6%), and American Airlines joined the route-cutting club. Raspberry Pi shares hit a record high after lifting profit forecasts, thanks to AI chatbot demand and clever inventory management. Oil prices hover around $95 a barrel, as geopolitical tensions simmer. UK house prices dipped for the third straight month, down 0.1% in May to £298,806, as borrowing costs bite. On the bright side, UK retail footfall bounced back in May as consumers got over the shock of higher petrol prices. So, in summary: no jet fuel shortage yet, but the economy is wobbling, and your summer holiday might cost a bit more. Welcome to 2026.