Proposed funding cuts to Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) would disproportionately disadvantage participants with visual impairment, psychosocial disability, and Down's syndrome, according to a government analysis. The government hopes to slash social participation budgets by 50% by the end of 2027, a move that sounds less like social policy and more like a reality TV elimination round.
The Office of Impact Analysis (OIA) report reveals the Department of Health considered various options to improve the NDIS's quality and cost, as the program's price tag is forecast to more than double in 10 years to $117bn, representing 2.4% of GDP. Health Minister Mark Butler last week introduced changes he said were critical to achieving the national cabinet's annual growth rate target of 5-6%, though the federal budget papers suggest these changes will tip $36.2bn back into Treasury and bring growth down to an average of 3.6% until 2030.
The changes would result in around 600,000 remaining on the NDIS, down from 774,456 as of March 2026 - an increase of 13,014 since December 2025. The OIA's conclusions show that reducing funding for social, civic, and community participation (SCCP) budgets - designed to reduce isolation and build independence - will impact some disability groups more significantly. Those most affected, on average, will be people with visual impairment, with about 34% of their plans set aside for social participation (average six-month budget: $13,233). For participants with psychosocial disability, about 30% of funding is typically reserved for social activities; for those with Down's syndrome, it's about 28%.
The report acknowledged: "Participants with certain primary disabilities are expected to be more affected by the reductions to SCCP funding. Some disability types require limited day-to-day support for activities of daily living, but require significant support to access the community."
Data showed around half of all NDIS participants - 393,401 - have funding for social activities. It's expected the social budgets of more than 60,000 will be halved between October and February 2027, with the remaining participants' budgets slashed by the end of next year. The report noted the benefits of social activities for giving participants a sense of belonging, increasing confidence, building skills, social networks, and reducing isolation. However, it added: "The decision to reduce this budget was preferred over others because it does not impact the health and safety of participants." A government spokesperson said the 50% reduction on social budgets, plus a 10% cut for daily activities to build a person's capacity, was necessary to return funding to 2023 levels, adding it would not result in a reduction for all because most participants do not use their full allocations.
People with Disability Australia's acting chief executive, Megan Spindler-Smith, warned of the effects: "It's heartless to cut supports we need to leave the house, work and study at a time when the cost of living has dramatically increased and alternatives are simply not there."
The document also shows the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing examined even more drastic cost-cutting options that ultimately weren't recommended. A blanket 10% cut in every support category for all participants (except those in supported independent living and requiring 24/7 care) was considered, as was freezing participant budgets at 2025-2026 levels. The department found significant cuts could result in a "regression" in daily living skills, elevate the risk of injury, neglect, social isolation, and ability to engage in work and community activities - which, the report noted, "would undermine the objectives of the NDIS, including the aim to provide reasonable and necessary supports to participants."