The much-hyped deal, which is set to be formally signed on Friday in Geneva, doesn’t end the war. It’s essentially a 60-day extension of a ceasefire - like hitting snooze on a geopolitical alarm that Donald Trump set himself.
When Donald Trump launched his war against Iran in late February, he had ambitious goals: to topple Iran’s theocratic regime, destroy its military capabilities and nuclear program, and instigate a popular uprising by Iranians. A week into the war, Trump said he would only accept Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. On Sunday, Trump settled for a deal that reopens the strait of Hormuz - a far cry from the grand victory lap he initially envisioned.
The US president celebrated having solved a problem he had created: reopening a vital waterway through which more than a fifth of the world’s oil supply passed each day - before Iran effectively closed it at the start of the war, increasing energy prices and disrupting the global economy. “Ships of the World, start your engines,” Trump wrote on social media in announcing the latest deal. “Let the oil flow!” It’s the diplomatic equivalent of setting your own house on fire, putting it out, then demanding a parade.
Mohamad Bazzi is a Guardian US columnist. He is also director of the Center for Near Eastern Studies, and a journalism professor, at New York University.